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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Real Madrid

S S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,3

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 79%

86%

71%

Points per game

2,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,6

Scored

2,3

1,9

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,52 xG 1,00

70% Possession 30%

26 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 0

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Villarreal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	6	1	0	+16	+9.5	19
2	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.6	18
3	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+8	+5.3	16
4	Elche	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.5	13
5	Ath Bilbao	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.8	13
6	Ath Madrid	7	3	3	1	+5	+6.5	12
7	Betis	7	3	3	1	+4	+4.1	12
8	Espanol	7	3	3	1	+1	+2.6	12
9	Getafe	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
10	Sevilla	7	3	1	3	+1	-6.2	10
11	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-1	-1.3	10
12	Levante	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.3	8
13	Alaves	7	2	2	3	-1	-0.7	8
14	Valencia	8	2	2	4	-4	-2.1	8
15	Oviedo	8	2	0	6	-10	-7.5	6
16	Girona	8	1	3	4	-12	-9.2	6
17	Vallecano	7	1	2	4	-3	+0.7	5
18	Celta	7	0	5	2	-3	-1.4	5
19	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.3	5
20	Mallorca	8	1	2	5	-6	-8.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	4	4	0	0	+9	+4.2	12
2	Ath Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.8	10
3	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.6	10
4	Elche	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.1	10
5	Espanol	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.1	10
6	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+2	+6.5	10
7	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.8	9
8	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	+2.0	9
9	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.6	9
10	Valencia	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.8	7
11	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.7	5
12	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.7	5
13	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
14	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
15	Girona	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.5	4
16	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.6	3
17	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.5	3
18	Vallecano	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
19	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
20	Levante	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.7	10
2	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.0	9
3	Sevilla	4	3	0	1	+3	-4.5	9
4	Levante	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.2	7
5	Getafe	5	2	0	3	-4	-0.9	6
6	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
7	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
8	Betis	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.1	3
9	Elche	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.7	3
10	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-2	-0.9	3
11	Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
12	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.0	3
13	Celta	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.0	2
14	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.7	2
15	Espanol	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.5	2
16	Girona	3	0	2	1	-5	-4.7	2
17	Sociedad	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.4	1
18	Valencia	4	0	1	3	-8	-6.0	1
19	Mallorca	4	0	0	4	-4	-5.1	0
20	Osasuna	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.