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Pro League

Referee: M Allaerts

St Truiden

U T T T T

3–3

Full-time

Dender

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Truiden Dender

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

2,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

3,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,75 xG 0,91

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Truiden 14. · Dender 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dender	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.3	7
2	St. Gilloise	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.0	7
3	Antwerp	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.9	6
4	Westerlo	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.7	6
5	Charleroi	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.4	5
7	Anderlecht	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
8	Standard	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.0	4
9	Genk	3	1	1	1	-1	+3.4	4
10	Gent	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.9	3
11	Club Brugge	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
12	Beerschot VA	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.4	1
13	Kortrijk	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
14	St Truiden	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Westerlo	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.7	6
2	St. Gilloise	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.0	6
3	Dender	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
4	Anderlecht	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
5	Antwerp	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.8	3
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.1	3
7	Standard	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
8	Charleroi	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
9	Club Brugge	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
10	Genk	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
11	Beerschot VA	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
12	Gent	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
13	Kortrijk	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
14	St Truiden	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Charleroi	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.0	3
2	Dender	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
3	Antwerp	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
4	Gent	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.9	3
5	Genk	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.8	3
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.4	2
7	Standard	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
8	St. Gilloise	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
9	Club Brugge	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
10	Beerschot VA	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
11	Kortrijk	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
12	St Truiden	2	0	0	2	-6	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.