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Conference League
Referee: R Jones
Fiorentina
T T T U U
0–1
Full-time
AEK
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina AEK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
67%
0%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,8
1,3
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/9 matches
Win Ø 62%
80%
44%
Points per game
2,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
80%
44%
Both score Ø 48%
40%
56%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
2,4
1,9
Conceded
0,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,43 xG 1,95
52% Possession 48%
10 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina AEK
Albert Guðmundsson ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
20′
35′
⚽ M. Gacinovic 0–1
S. Pilios
Albert Guðmundsson 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–1
62′
🟨 Roberto Pereyra
63′
🟨 Stavros Pilios
M. Kean 🔁
↦ C. Ndour
63′
E. Kouadio 🔁
↦ F. Parisi
63′
66′
🔁 P. Mantalos
↦ R. Pereyra
66′
🔁 Zini
↦ A. Koita
Marin Pongračić 🟨
69′
J. Fazzini 🔁
↦ N. Fortini
79′
M. Viti 🔁
↦ L. Ranieri
79′
N. Fagioli 🔁
↦ H. Nicolussi Caviglia
79′
81′
🔁 M. Grujic
↦ M. Gacinovic
90′
🔁 J. Penrice
↦
Rolando Mandragora 🟨
97′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Fiorentina

3-5-2
43 D. de Gea G
5 M. Pongracic D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
29 N. Fortini M
8 R. Mandragora M
14 H. Nicolussi Caviglia M
27 C. Ndour M
65 F. Parisi M
9 E. Dzeko F
10 A. Gudmundsson F
Bench (12)
1 L. Lezzerini
30 T. Martinelli
7 S. Sohm
18 P. Mari
20 M. Kean
22 J. Fazzini
23 E. Kospo
24 A. Richardson
26 M. Viti
44 N. Fagioli
60 E. Kouadio
91 R. Piccoli

Coach: Paolo Vanoli

AEK

4-3-3
1 T. Strakosha G
12 L. Rota D
2 H. Moukoudi D
44 F. Relvas D
3 S. Pilios D
13 O. Pineda M
18 R. Marin M
37 R. Pereyra M
11 A. Koita F
9 L. Jovic F
8 M. Gacinovic F
Bench (9)
81 A. Angelopoulos
91 A. Brignoli
4 M. Grujic
20 P. Mantalos
21 D. Vida
29 J. Penrice
34 C. Kosidis
55 K. Chrysopoulos
90 Zini

Coach: Marko Nikolic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Jones · 186 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.