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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Bolton

S T T U U

1–2

Full-time

Derby

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

51% Possession 49%

7 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 20. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Wolves	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Ipswich	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Nott'm Forest	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Sunderland	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Hull	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Preston	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Reading	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	4
17	Fulham	3	0	3	0	+0	3
18	Barnsley	4	1	0	3	-3	3
19	Burton Albion	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Bolton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	Brentford	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
24	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Hull	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Burton Albion	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Birmingham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.