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Championship
Referee: J Gillett
Peterborough
U T T T T
3–0
Full-time
Birmingham
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Peterborough Birmingham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
2,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,2
This season — Championship · 7/8 matches
Win Ø 26%
14%
38%
Points per game
0,6
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
71%
38%
Both score Ø 41%
57%
25%
Average goals
3,4
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%
9 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 6
3 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Peterborough 24. · Birmingham 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 West Brom 8 5 3 0 +8 18
2 Fulham 7 5 1 1 +12 16
3 Bournemouth 7 4 3 0 +7 15
4 Coventry 7 5 0 2 +3 15
5 Stoke 7 4 2 1 +2 14
6 Huddersfield 7 4 1 2 +4 13
7 QPR 7 3 3 1 +5 12
8 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 +4 12
9 Cardiff 8 3 3 2 +3 12
10 Blackburn 7 3 3 1 +3 12
11 Luton 8 3 3 2 +1 12
12 Birmingham 8 3 2 3 +0 11
13 Preston 8 3 2 3 -1 11
14 Reading 8 3 1 4 -2 10
15 Middlesbrough 7 2 3 2 +0 9
16 Bristol City 7 2 3 2 +0 9
17 Millwall 7 1 4 2 -2 7
18 Barnsley 7 1 4 2 -3 7
19 Derby 8 1 4 3 -3 7
20 Peterboro 8 2 1 5 -7 7
21 Swansea 7 1 3 3 -4 6
22 Blackpool 7 1 2 4 -6 5
23 Hull 8 1 2 5 -7 5
24 Peterborough 7 1 1 5 -10 4
25 Nott'm Forest 7 0 1 6 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Peterborough Birmingham
0–1 H. Dean
own goal
1′
34′
🟨 Ryan Woods
1–1 J. Clarke-Harris
35′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 D. Sanderson
↦ M. Roberts
46′
🔁 I. Šunjić
↦ Jérémie Bela
2–1 J. Grant
S. Dembélé
50′
58′
🔁 C. Aneke
↦ L. Jutkiewicz
65′
🟥 Gary Gardner
Frankie Kent 🟨
70′
C. Coventry 🔁
↦ J. Taylor
72′
74′
🟨 Chuks Aneke
H. Burrows 🔁
↦ S. Dembélé
82′
S. Szmodics 🔁
↦ J. Grant
83′
Dan Butler 🟨
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Peterborough

4-3-3
13 D. Cornell G
4 N. Thompson D
3 D. Butler D
6 F. Kent D
18 O. Norburn M
23 J. Ward F
11 J. Grant M
8 J. Taylor M
10 S. Dembélé F
2 R. Edwards D
9 J. Clarke-Harris F
Bench (7)
20 C. Coventry
16 H. Burrows
7 S. Szmodics
12 J. Knight
28 W. Blackmore
19 I. Kanu
21 J. Tomlinson

Coach: D. Ferguson

Birmingham

4-4-2
13 M. Šarkić G
12 H. Dean D
2 M. Colin D
4 M. Roberts D
3 K. Pedersen D
20 G. Gardner M
11 Jérémie Bela M
6 R. Woods M
7 T. Chong M
10 L. Jutkiewicz F
36 T. Deeney F
Bench (7)
21 D. Sanderson
34 I. Šunjić
15 C. Aneke
5 G. Friend
18 R. McGree
27 C. Trueman
9 S. Hogan

Coach: L. Bowyer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Gillett · 178 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.