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Bundesliga
Referee: J Spurny
Mattersburg
T T T S T
3–3
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mattersburg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,8
1,7
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
3,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-2,2
+0,0
This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
29%
57%
Points per game
0,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
71%
29%
Both score Ø 36%
57%
14%
Average goals
3,7
1,9
Scored
1,0
1,1
Conceded
2,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,7
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

50% Possession 50%
10 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
21 Free kicks against 23
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mattersburg 9. · Sturm Graz 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 7 7 0 0 +28 21
2 LASK 7 5 1 1 +8 16
3 Wolfsberger AC 7 5 0 2 +11 15
4 SK Rapid 7 4 1 2 +6 13
5 Sturm Graz 7 4 0 3 +3 12
6 Hartberg 7 3 2 2 +0 11
7 Tirol 7 2 2 3 -3 8
8 Altach 7 2 1 4 +0 7
9 Mattersburg 7 2 0 5 -12 6
10 Austria Vienna 7 1 2 4 -6 5
11 St. Polten 7 1 2 4 -16 5
12 Admira 7 0 1 6 -19 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mattersburg Sturm Graz
1–0 Andreas Gruber
10′
21′
Tasos Avlonitis 1–1
Kiril Despodov
24′
Philipp Erhardt 2–1
own goal
40′
🟨 Otar Kiteishvili
Patrick Bürger
penalty missed
41′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 Patrick Bürger
Christoph Halper
58′
Nedeljko Malić 🟨
68′
Fabian Miesenböck 🔁
↦ Christoph Halper
71′
72′
🔁 Jakob Jantscher
↦ Stefan Hierländer
Marko Kvasina 🔁
↦ Patrick Bürger
73′
77′
Thorsten Röcher 3–2
Thomas Schrammel
Thorsten Mahrer 🟨
81′
81′
🔁 Ivan Ljubić
↦ Kiril Despodov
Victor Olatunji 🔁
↦ Philipp Erhardt
82′
Patrick Salomon 🟨
85′
87′
🔁 Philipp Huspek
↦ Thorsten Röcher
4–2 Andreas Gruber
90′
90′
🟨 Kiril Despodov
90′
🟨 Jakob Jantscher
90′
🟨 Juan Dominguez
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Mattersburg

4-1-4-1
1 Markus Kuster G
21 Patrick Salomon D
4 Nedeljko Malić D
31 Thorsten Mahrer D
5 Michael Lercher D
6 Philipp Erhardt M
11 Andreas Gruber M
10 Jano M
30 Andreas Kuen M
14 Christoph Halper M
33 Patrick Bürger F
Bench (7)
13 Tino Casali
32 Raffael Behounek
18 Lukas Rath
7 Fabian Miesenböck
24 Stephen Schimandl
9 Marko Kvasina
20 Victor Olatunji

Coach: F. Ponweiser

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
27 Jörg Siebenhandl G
8 Emanuel Šakić D
5 Tasos Avlonitis D
23 Lukas Spendlhofer D
4 Thomas Schrammel D
21 Juan Dominguez M
10 Otar Kiteishvili M
11 Kiril Despodov M
29 Thorsten Röcher M
25 Stefan Hierländer M
9 Bekim Balaj F
Bench (7)
32 Tobias Schützenauer
26 Fabian Koch
20 Isaac Donkor
18 Philipp Huspek
13 Jakob Jantscher
24 Christoph Leitgeb
30 Ivan Ljubić

Coach: N. El Maestro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Spurny · 59 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.