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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Man City

S U S S T

8–0

Full-time

Watford

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

3,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

100%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

4,4

2,8

Scored

3,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 5–0

68% Possession 32%

28 Shots 5

11 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Watford 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	11
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
4	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+1	10
5	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	+4	8
6	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Arsenal	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	West Ham	5	2	2	1	-1	8
10	Everton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-3	7
13	Norwich	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Burnley	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Sheffield United	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Brighton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Wolves	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Watford	5	0	2	3	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Man City	2	1	1	0	+4	4
8	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	0	1	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.