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Championship

Referee: J Brooks

Brentford

S T T T S

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Championship · 30/32 matches

Win Ø 44%

53%

34%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

53%

34%

Both score Ø 49%

57%

41%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 3. · Stoke 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	32	20	7	5	+20	67
2	Watford	33	17	9	7	+19	60
3	Brentford	30	16	8	6	+24	56
4	Bournemouth	32	14	10	8	+16	52
5	Swansea	27	15	7	5	+15	52
6	Reading	32	15	6	11	+7	51
7	Cardiff	32	14	7	11	+14	49
8	Barnsley	29	14	6	9	+5	48
9	Middlesbrough	32	13	7	12	+3	46
10	Stoke	32	11	12	9	+2	45
11	Millwall	32	9	16	7	+3	43
12	Bristol City	32	13	3	16	-11	42
13	QPR	30	10	10	10	-4	40
14	Nott'm Forest	33	10	10	13	-4	40
15	Preston	32	12	4	16	-8	40
16	Blackburn	31	11	6	14	+8	39
17	Derby	32	10	8	14	-8	38
18	Luton	31	10	8	13	-11	38
19	Huddersfield	32	10	6	16	-9	36
20	Coventry	32	8	10	14	-14	34
21	Sheffield Weds	31	9	7	15	-14	34
22	Birmingham	32	7	10	15	-17	31
23	Rotherham	30	8	5	17	-8	29
24	Wycombe	31	5	8	18	-28	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Norwich	16	10	5	1	+13	35
3	Bournemouth	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Swansea	15	9	5	1	+12	32
5	Brentford	14	8	4	2	+14	28
6	Barnsley	14	8	3	3	+6	27
7	Reading	16	9	0	7	+4	27
8	Huddersfield	16	8	2	6	+7	26
9	Middlesbrough	16	8	2	6	+2	26
10	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Coventry	16	6	6	4	+0	24
12	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	+3	23
13	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	-2	23
14	Blackburn	15	6	4	5	+5	22
15	QPR	15	6	4	5	+0	22
16	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	+8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	+1	21
18	Luton	15	5	6	4	+0	21
19	Derby	17	5	5	7	-5	20
20	Millwall	16	3	10	3	+2	19
21	Rotherham	15	4	3	8	-1	15
22	Preston	16	4	3	9	-5	15
23	Wycombe	16	3	5	8	-9	14
24	Birmingham	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+7	32
2	Brentford	16	8	4	4	+10	28
3	Cardiff	16	8	4	4	+6	28
4	Preston	16	8	1	7	-3	25
5	Reading	16	6	6	4	+3	24
6	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+1	24
7	Birmingham	16	5	7	4	+0	22
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-1	22
9	Barnsley	15	6	3	6	-1	21
10	Swansea	12	6	2	4	+3	20
11	Middlesbrough	16	5	5	6	+1	20
12	Stoke	16	4	8	4	-1	20
13	Bournemouth	15	4	7	4	+4	19
14	Nott'm Forest	17	5	4	8	-5	19
15	Bristol City	16	6	1	9	-9	19
16	Derby	15	5	3	7	-3	18
17	QPR	15	4	6	5	-4	18
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	+3	17
19	Luton	16	5	2	9	-11	17
20	Rotherham	15	4	2	9	-7	14
21	Sheffield Weds	16	3	2	11	-17	11
22	Coventry	16	2	4	10	-14	10
23	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-16	10
24	Wycombe	15	2	3	10	-19	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.