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2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

U S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

55%

41%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

10 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

3 Corners 6

3 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 4. · Erzgebirge Aue 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	22	12	6	4	+20	42
2	Greuther Furth	22	12	6	4	+18	42
3	Bochum	22	13	3	6	+17	42
4	Holstein Kiel	22	12	6	4	+15	42
5	Karlsruhe	23	12	3	8	+7	39
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	22	10	6	6	+3	36
7	Hannover	22	10	3	9	+8	33
8	Heidenheim	22	9	6	7	+3	33
9	Erzgebirge Aue	22	9	5	8	+1	32
10	Paderborn	23	8	7	8	+1	31
11	Regensburg	23	7	8	8	-4	29
12	St Pauli	22	7	7	8	-4	28
13	Nurnberg	22	7	5	10	-5	26
14	Darmstadt	23	7	4	12	-6	25
15	Osnabruck	22	6	4	12	-12	22
16	Braunschweig	22	5	5	12	-22	20
17	Sandhausen	22	5	3	14	-19	18
18	Wurzburger Kickers	22	4	3	15	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Heidenheim	11	7	3	1	+13	24
2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	7	3	1	+7	24
3	Hamburg	11	7	2	2	+16	23
4	Bochum	11	7	2	2	+15	23
5	Erzgebirge Aue	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Paderborn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
7	Hannover	10	6	2	2	+11	20
8	Greuther Furth	11	6	2	3	+7	20
9	Holstein Kiel	11	6	2	3	+4	20
10	Regensburg	12	5	4	3	+3	19
11	Braunschweig	12	5	2	5	-4	17
12	Sandhausen	11	4	3	4	-1	15
13	St Pauli	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Karlsruhe	11	4	2	5	+1	14
15	Darmstadt	12	4	2	6	-2	14
16	Nurnberg	11	3	3	5	-4	12
17	Wurzburger Kickers	11	3	3	5	-6	12
18	Osnabruck	11	2	1	8	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	12	8	1	3	+6	25
2	Greuther Furth	11	6	4	1	+11	22
3	Holstein Kiel	11	6	4	1	+11	22
4	Hamburg	11	5	4	2	+4	19
5	Bochum	11	6	1	4	+2	19
6	Osnabruck	11	4	3	4	-4	15
7	Nurnberg	11	4	2	5	-1	14
8	St Pauli	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Hannover	12	4	1	7	-3	13
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	3	5	-4	12
11	Darmstadt	11	3	2	6	-4	11
12	Erzgebirge Aue	11	3	2	6	-5	11
13	Paderborn	12	2	4	6	-4	10
14	Regensburg	11	2	4	5	-7	10
15	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-10	9
16	Wurzburger Kickers	11	1	0	10	-15	3
17	Sandhausen	11	1	0	10	-18	3
18	Braunschweig	10	0	3	7	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.