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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

U U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

75%

13%

Points per game

2,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

38%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Moreirense 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+14	21
3	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+9	20
4	Estoril	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Portimonense	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Sp Braga	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+3	13
8	Boavista	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Gil Vicente	8	2	3	3	+0	9
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Tondela	9	3	0	6	-4	9
12	Vizela	8	1	5	2	-6	8
13	Maritimo	9	1	4	4	-4	7
14	Moreirense	8	1	4	3	-6	7
15	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-4	6
16	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-12	6
17	Arouca	8	1	2	5	-8	5
18	Belenenses	8	0	4	4	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Vizela	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Tondela	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	Sp Braga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Estoril	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-6	5
12	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Maritimo	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Portimonense	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Guimaraes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Famalicao	5	1	1	3	-2	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Moreirense	4	0	3	1	-5	3
14	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-4	2
15	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-7	2
17	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.