← Match Finder
Championship
Referee: D Bond
West Brom
T S T T U
5–3
Full-time
Luton
U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

West Brom Luton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
1,8
Scored
0,7
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 45/45 matches
Win Ø 30%
31%
29%
Points per game
1,4
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
36%
42%
Both score Ø 53%
56%
49%
Average goals
2,1
2,4
Scored
1,2
0,9
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,18 xG 0,54
67% Possession 33%
19 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 22
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Brom 10. · Luton 21. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 45 28 13 4 +64 +57.1 97
2 Burnley 45 27 16 2 +51 +20.1 97
3 Sheffield United 42 26 6 10 +25 +15.2 84
4 Sunderland 42 21 12 9 +19 +11.4 75
5 Bristol City 43 17 15 11 +5 +0.5 66
6 Millwall 45 18 12 15 +0 +3.7 66
7 Blackburn 45 19 8 18 +5 -1.4 65
8 Middlesbrough 45 18 10 17 +10 +10.8 64
9 Coventry 43 18 8 17 +1 +15.1 62
10 West Brom 45 14 19 12 +8 +11.0 61
11 Swansea 45 17 9 19 -5 +1.4 60
12 Sheffield Weds 45 15 12 18 -9 +0.0 57
13 Watford 45 16 8 21 -8 -10.5 56
14 Norwich 45 13 15 17 +1 +7.9 54
15 QPR 45 13 14 18 -11 -8.3 53
16 Portsmouth 45 14 11 20 -13 -11.0 53
17 Oxford 45 13 13 19 -16 -25.6 52
18 Stoke 45 12 14 19 -17 -19.8 50
19 Derby 45 13 10 22 -8 -6.5 49
20 Preston 45 10 19 16 -11 -5.3 49
21 Luton 45 13 10 22 -22 -5.3 49
22 Hull 45 12 12 21 -10 -5.3 48
23 Plymouth 45 11 13 21 -36 -40.5 46
24 Cardiff 45 9 17 19 -23 -14.7 44

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Brom Luton
1–0 T. Fellows ⚽
7′
9′
⚽ M. Alli 1–1
T. Aasgaard
2–1 D. Dike ⚽
C. Styles
30′
3–1 T. Fellows ⚽
D. Dike
33′
Half-time 3–1
46′
🔁 R. Burke
↦ C. Makosso
46′
🔁 T. Chong
↦ C. Morris
S. Ajayi 🔁
↦ K. Bartley
53′
4–1 C. Styles ⚽
D. Furlong
57′
5–1 C. Styles ⚽
T. Fellows
61′
J. Molumby 🔁
↦ O. Diakité
62′
A. Armstrong 🔁
↦ D. Dike
62′
62′
🔁 Lamine Fanne
↦ L. Walsh
62′
🔁 L. Nordås
↦ I. Jones
65′
⚽ J. Clark 5–2
T. Chong
72′
🟨 Thelo Aasgaard
Semi Ajayi 🟨
73′
H. Whitwell 🔁
↦ I. Price
78′
G. Diangana 🔁
↦ T. Fellows
78′
84′
🔁 K. Naismith
↦ T. Mengi
88′
⚽ M. Alli 5–3
J. Clark
94′
🟨 Jordan Clark
Darnell Furlong 🟨
95′
Full-time 5–3

Line-ups

West Brom

4-2-3-1
20 J. Griffiths G
2 D. Furlong D
5 K. Bartley D
14 T. Heggem D
4 C. Styles D
17 O. Diakité M
27 A. Mowatt M
31 T. Fellows M
12 D. Dike M
21 I. Price M
18 K. Ahearne-Grant F
Bench (9)
6 S. Ajayi
8 J. Molumby
32 A. Armstrong
34 H. Whitwell
11 G. Diangana
44 D. Cole
23 J. Wildsmith
19 W. Lankshear
22 M. Johnston

Coach: J. Morrison

Luton

4-2-3-1
24 T. Kaminski G
28 C. Makosso D
6 M. McGuinness D
15 T. Mengi D
3 A. Bell D
18 J. Clark M
20 L. Walsh M
25 I. Jones M
8 T. Aasgaard M
21 M. Alli M
9 C. Morris F
Bench (9)
16 R. Burke
14 T. Chong
22 Lamine Fanne
44 L. Nordås
12 K. Naismith
37 Z. Nelson
26 S. Baptiste
5 M. Andersen
23 T. Krul

Coach: M. Bloomfield

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,99
U
3,39
B
2,33
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
2,03
U2,5
1,79
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

D Bond · 157 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.