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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Fiorentina

U T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Juventus

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

45%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

64%

27%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,58 xG 1,50

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 20. · Juventus 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	8	0	3	+14	+12.1	24
2	Bologna	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.1	24
3	Roma	11	8	0	3	+7	+1.9	24
4	Milan	11	6	4	1	+8	+5.1	22
5	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+6	+3.2	22
6	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+4	+6.0	19
7	Como	11	4	6	1	+6	+2.8	18
8	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+2	-3.5	16
9	Lazio	11	4	3	4	+4	-4.5	15
10	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-8	-3.0	15
11	Cremonese	11	3	5	3	-1	-6.3	14
12	Torino	11	3	5	3	-6	-4.3	14
13	Atalanta	11	2	7	2	+2	+4.6	13
14	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-5	-7.3	11
15	Lecce	11	2	4	5	-6	-4.7	10
16	Pisa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.1	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-7	-3.7	8
18	Genoa	12	1	5	6	-8	+2.6	8
19	Verona	11	0	6	5	-10	+0.4	6
20	Fiorentina	11	0	5	6	-9	-1.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	5	0	1	+13	+8.5	15
2	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
3	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+5	-0.5	13
4	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
5	Como	6	3	3	0	+6	+2.4	12
6	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
7	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
8	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+6	+1.2	10
9	Torino	5	2	2	1	-1	-2.4	8
10	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Cremonese	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.3	6
13	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.8	6
14	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
15	Parma	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.6	6
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
17	Verona	5	0	3	2	-2	+2.3	3
18	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
19	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	+2.3	3
20	Fiorentina	5	0	1	4	-5	+0.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.1	12
2	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
3	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.7	10
4	Milan	5	2	3	0	+5	+2.4	9
5	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
6	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
7	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
8	Juventus	5	2	1	2	-1	+1.0	7
9	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.8	7
10	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-4	-3.8	7
11	Atalanta	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
12	Como	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.4	6
13	Cagliari	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-2	-5.7	5
17	Fiorentina	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.2	4
18	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.8	3
19	Verona	6	0	3	3	-8	-1.9	3
20	Parma	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.