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League Cup
Referee: C Breakspear
Stevenage
S U S S T
1–1
Full-time
Watford
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stevenage Watford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%
13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
13 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Stevenage Watford
Jake Forster-Caskey 🟨
5′
6′
⚽ V. Bayo 0–1
T. Dele-Bashiru
34′
🔁 R. Andrews
↦ J. Ngakia
1–1 J. March ⚽
A. Pressley
43′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Francisco Sierralta
L. Thompson 🔁
↦ F. Burns
46′
59′
🟨 Wesley Hoedt
Aaron Pressley 🟨
60′
61′
🔁 I. Koné
↦ K. Sema
61′
🔁 J. Livermore
↦ T. Dele-Bashiru
Nick Freeman 🟨
65′
67′
🟨 Ismael Koné
B. Thompson 🔁
↦ N. Freeman
70′
J. Roberts 🔁
↦ A. Pressley
70′
79′
🔁 E. Kayembe
↦ I. Louza
79′
🔁 R. Healey
↦ Matheus Martins
82′
🟨 Jake Livermore
J. Reid 🔁
↦ J. March
82′
100′
🟨 Edo Kayembe
121′
⚽ W. Hoedt 1–2
J. Reid ❌
penalty missed
122′
123′
⚽ F. Sierralta 1–3
2–3 J. Roberts ⚽
124′
125′
❌ R. Porteous
penalty missed
126′
❌ R. Healey
penalty missed
3–3 J. Forster-Caskey ⚽
127′
4–3 A. MacDonald ⚽
128′
129′
⚽ I. Koné 4–4
5–4 N. Thompson ⚽
130′
Full-time 5–4

Line-ups

Stevenage

3-4-1-2
12 K. Hegyi G
2 L. James-Wildin D
4 N. Thompson D
17 F. Burns D
14 K. Smith M
8 J. Forster-Caskey M
7 A. MacDonald M
3 D. Butler M
10 N. Freeman F
18 J. March F
20 A. Pressley F
Bench (5)
23 L. Thompson
24 B. Thompson
11 J. Roberts
19 J. Reid
1 T. Ashby-Hammond

Coach: S. Evans

Watford

4-3-3
26 B. Hamer G
2 J. Ngakia D
5 R. Porteous D
4 W. Hoedt D
42 J. Morris D
10 I. Louza M
3 F. Sierralta M
24 T. Dele-Bashiru M
12 K. Sema F
19 V. Bayo F
37 Matheus Martins F
Bench (9)
45 R. Andrews
11 I. Koné
8 J. Livermore
39 E. Kayembe
14 R. Healey
47 S. Forde
40 M. Roberts
15 M. Pollock
18 Y. Asprilla

Coach: V. Ismaël

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Breakspear · 14 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.