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League Cup

Referee: J Smith

Arsenal

S U S U U

5–1

Full-time

Bolton

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

77% Possession 23%

21 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Preston	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Fleetwood Town	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Watford	3	2	0	1	+6	6
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Blackpool	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Leyton Orient	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Wycombe	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Coventry	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+4	4
15	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
19	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
21	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
22	Barrow	3	1	1	1	-4	4
23	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-6	4
24	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
25	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
27	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-3	3
46	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
47	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
58	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
60	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
90	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Walsall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
36	Colchester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
37	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
38	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
39	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
57	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
58	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Wycombe	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-7	1
35	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.