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Premier League
Referee: M Dean
Watford
T S S T S
3–2
Full-time
Aston Villa
T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
0%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
0%
83%
Average goals
1,5
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

38% Possession 62%
13 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Jan -20 Aston Villa – Watford 2–1 28. Dec -19 Watford – Aston Villa 3–0 30. Apr -16 Watford – Aston Villa 3–2 28. Nov -15 Aston Villa – Watford 2–3

Match report

Watford Aston Villa
1–0 E. Dennis ⚽
10′
Juraj Kucka 🟨
23′
2–0 I. Sarr ⚽
E. Dennis
42′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 J. Ramsey
↦ M. Targett
54′
🟨 Tyrone Mings
Ken Sema 🟨
55′
60′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ A. El Ghazi
J. Hernández 🔁
↦ E. Dennis
66′
3–0 J. Hernández ⚽
T. Cleverley
67′
D. Gosling 🔁
↦ J. Kucka
69′
70′
⚽ J. McGinn 3–1
L. Bailey
72′
🔁 Bertrand Traoré
↦ E. Buendía
T. Deeney 🔁
↦ T. Cleverley
79′
Oghenekaro Etebo 🟨
86′
97′
⚽ D. Ings 3–2
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Watford

4-1-4-1
26 D. Bachmann G
15 C. Cathcart D
27 C. Kabasele D
5 W. Troost-Ekong D
11 A. Masina D
33 J. Kucka M
8 T. Cleverley M
12 K. Sema M
4 O. Etebo M
25 E. Dennis F
23 I. Sarr M
Bench (9)
29 J. Hernández
16 D. Gosling
9 T. Deeney
2 J. Ngakia
31 F. Sierralta
3 D. Rose
1 B. Foster
17 A. Fletcher
6 I. Louza

Coach: Xisco Muñoz

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
1 E. Martínez G
18 A. Young M
5 T. Mings D
3 M. Targett D
4 E. Konsa D
7 J. McGinn M
19 M. Nakamba M
21 A. El Ghazi M
10 E. Buendía M
2 M. Cash D
20 D. Ings F
Bench (9)
41 J. Ramsey
31 L. Bailey
15 Bertrand Traoré
12 J. Steer
32 J. Philogene-Bidace
9 Wesley
33 C. Chukwuemeka
30 K. Hause
16 A. Tuanzebe

Coach: D. Smith

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,14
🔒
U
3,26
🔒
B
2,41
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,03
🔒
U2,5
1,82
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Dean · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.