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Copa del Rey

Referee: Juan Pulido

UD San Pedro

1–5

Full-time

Celta

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

UD San Pedro Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

6,0

2,3

Scored

4,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Vic	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Elche	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	UD San Pedro	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Huesca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Granada	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Europa Fc	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Sant Andreu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Salamanca UDS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
37	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	San Tirso	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Gévora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Vic	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	UD San Pedro	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Cacereño	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Europa Fc	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Sant Andreu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	UD Logroñés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Salamanca UDS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Conquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
12	Olot	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	San Tirso	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Gévora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
39	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Burgos	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Elche	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Huesca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Granada	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Sp Gijon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
41	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

UD San Pedro Celta

4′

⚽ Alfon González 0–1

Damián Rodríguez

1–1 Kiko Carmona ⚽

Vergara

15′

18′

⚽ Pablo Durán 1–2

36′

🔁 T. Allende

↦ Sergio Carreira

41′

⚽ T. Allende 1–3

M. Ristić

44′

🟨 M. Roman

Half-time 1–3

46′

🔁 Javi Rodríguez

↦ Miguel Román

46′

🔁 Fer López

↦ Carlos Domínguez

61′

⚽ T. Douvikas 1–4

Alfon González

Óscar Asencio 🔁

↦ Jaime

62′

Bryan Porras 🔁

↦ Sergio Oliva

62′

Chino 🔁

↦ Vergara

66′

69′

🔁 Yoel Lago

↦ Pablo Durán

Chino 🟨

74′

Corbacho 🔁

↦ Kiko Carmona

75′

Marcos Alias 🔁

↦ S. Restrepo

75′

78′

🔁 J. Bamba

↦ Alfon González

83′

⚽ T. Douvikas 1–5

Javi Rodríguez

Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

UD San Pedro

1 Manolo Reina

20 S. Restrepo

3 Dani Lavela

12 Pedro Paulo

2 Silva

21 Vergara

6 Pepe del Río

8 Manu

16 Jaime

15 Sergio Oliva

7 Kiko Carmona

Bench (11)

9 Óscar Asencio

22 Bryan Porras

10 Chino

19 Corbacho

18 Marcos Alias

5 Fran

23 Paquito

17 Pablo Gil

25 Daniel Tudela

13 O. Belhaddad

11 Cipri

Coach: Berlanga

Celta

Iván Villar

21 M. Ristić

15 J. Aidoo

Sergio Carreira

Carlos Domínguez

11 F. Cervi

Damián Rodríguez

Miguel Román

Alfon González

T. Douvikas

Pablo Durán

Bench (11)

23 T. Allende

32 Javi Rodríguez

28 Fer López

29 Yoel Lago

17 J. Bamba

35 Coke Carrillo

6 I. Moriba

20 Marcos Alonso

22 Javier Manquillo

33 Hugo Sotelo

3 Óscar Mingueza

Coach: Claudio Giráldez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

9. Oct CDR 1 year ago

Referee

Juan Pulido · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,7 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

24,8 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

UD San Pedro

Celta

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee