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Copa del Rey
Referee: Millan Bárcenas
0–0
Full-time
Ponferradina
S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Villarreal 1 1 0 0 +5 3
2 Vallecano 1 1 0 0 +5 3
3 Zaragoza 1 1 0 0 +4 3
4 Chiclana 1 1 0 0 +4 3
5 Vic 1 1 0 0 +4 3
6 Burgos 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 Valladolid 1 1 0 0 +3 3
8 Sevilla 1 1 0 0 +3 3
9 Cadiz 1 1 0 0 +3 3
10 UD San Pedro 1 1 0 0 +2 3
11 Manises 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Santander 1 1 0 0 +1 3
13 Ourense CF 1 1 0 0 +1 3
14 Gimnastic 1 1 0 0 +1 3
15 Europa Fc 1 1 0 0 +1 3
16 Leganes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
17 Orihuela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
18 Marbella 1 1 0 0 +1 3
19 Cartagena 1 1 0 0 +1 3
20 Alaves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
21 Parla Escuela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
22 Astur 2 1 0 1 -1 3
23 Villamuriel 2 1 0 1 -4 3
24 Olot 1 0 1 0 +0 1
25 Cordoba 1 0 1 0 +0 1
26 San Tirso 1 0 1 0 +0 1
27 Selaya 1 0 1 0 +0 1
28 Baztán 1 0 1 0 +0 1
29 Ontiñena 1 0 1 0 +0 1
30 Gévora 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Playas Sotavento 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Lanzarote 1 0 0 1 -1 0
33 Guijuelo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
34 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
35 Albacete 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Ciudad de Lucena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Langreo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Bergantiños 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Beasain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Compostela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Sonseca 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Aurrerá Vitoria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -2 0
44 Dolorense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 Promesas EDF 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 Móstoles 1 0 0 1 -3 0
47 Las Rozas 1 0 0 1 -3 0
48 Real Jaén 1 0 0 1 -3 0
49 L'Hospitalet 1 0 0 1 -4 0
50 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -4 0
51 Sporting Mahón 1 0 0 1 -4 0
52 Poblense 1 0 0 1 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Escobedo Ponferradina
A. Cagigal 🟨
16′
J. Casar 🟨
24′
39′
🟨 A. Lopez
Half-time 0–0
66′
🔁 José Luis Cortés
↦ Álvaro Bustos
Aarón Fernández 🔁
↦ Gonzalo Peña
68′
Raúl Tresgallo 🔁
↦ Adrián Cagigal
68′
73′
🔁 Yeray Cabanzón
↦ Borja Fernández
73′
🔁 Vicente Esquerdo
↦ Ernesto Gómez
Edu Fontán 🔁
↦ Jay Romero
73′
Fermín Sánchez 🔁
↦ Mateo Gandarillas
73′
83′
🔁 Álvaro Ramón
↦ Álex Mula
Adri Villasana 🔁
↦ Saza
84′
96′
🟨 J. Lancho
99′
🔁 David Andújar
↦ Javi Lancho
Alejandro García 🔁
↦ Izam Ortiz
106′
116′
🟨 A. Ramon
118′
🟨 B. Valle
1–0 Edu Fontán
121′
122′
Vicente Esquerdo 1–1
2–1 Adri Villasana
123′
124′
José Luis Cortés 2–2
3–2 Juan Casar
125′
126′
Andoni López 3–3
4–3 Raúl Tresgallo
127′
128′
Álex Costa 4–4
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
Aarón Fernández
penalty missed
129′
130′
Yeray Cabanzón 4–5
Full-time 4–5

Line-ups

Escobedo

1 Iván Rumenov
18 Adrián Cagigal
5 Víctor Ruiz
4 Javi Morales
23 Diego Espinosa
6 Izam Ortiz
21 Juan Casar
19 Saza
20 Jay Romero
11 Gonzalo Peña
10 Mateo Gandarillas
Bench (9)
22 Aarón Fernández
14 Raúl Tresgallo
3 Fermín Sánchez
7 Edu Fontán
17 Adri Villasana
28 Alejandro García
13 Laro Gómez
31 Diego Lopez
26 Álvaro Pelayo

Coach: Samu San José

Ponferradina

13 Ángel Jiménez
19 Andoni López
4 K. Sibille
17 T. Carrique
5 Javi Lancho
6 Borja Fernández
16 Markel Lozano
15 Álvaro Bustos
7 Ernesto Gómez
11 Álex Mula
20 Álex Costa
Bench (9)
21 José Luis Cortés
22 Vicente Esquerdo
9 Yeray Cabanzón
18 Álvaro Ramón
2 David Andújar
10 Borja Valle
25 Pablo Barredo
26 Ivan Zhadanov
27 Asier Blanco

Coach: Javi Rey

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.