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Serie A
Referee: D Orsato
Milan
S S T S T
2–0
Full-time
Juventus
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Juventus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 51%
63%
38%
Points per game
2,1
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
63%
38%
Both score Ø 57%
75%
38%
Average goals
3,1
2,1
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,1
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%
21 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
7 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 5. · Juventus 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 8 6 2 0 +12 20
2 Atalanta 8 6 2 0 +9 20
3 Udinese 8 6 1 1 +9 19
4 Lazio 8 5 2 1 +12 17
5 Milan 8 5 2 1 +7 17
6 Roma 8 5 1 2 +2 16
7 Inter 9 5 0 4 +2 15
8 Juventus 8 3 4 1 +7 13
9 Sassuolo 9 3 3 3 +1 12
10 Torino 8 3 1 4 -3 10
11 Fiorentina 8 2 3 3 +0 9
12 Spezia 8 2 2 4 -8 8
13 Lecce 8 1 4 3 -2 7
14 Salernitana 8 1 4 3 -3 7
15 Empoli 8 1 4 3 -3 7
16 Monza 8 2 1 5 -7 7
17 Bologna 8 1 3 4 -6 6
18 Verona 8 1 2 5 -8 5
19 Cremonese 8 0 3 5 -9 3
20 Sampdoria 8 0 2 6 -12 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Juventus
26′
🟨 Juan Cuadrado
Half-time 1–0
1–0 F. Tomori
O. Giroud
46′
46′
🔁 W. McKennie
↦ J. Cuadrado
2–0 Brahim Díaz
54′
Brahim Díaz 🟨
55′
56′
🔁 F. Miretti
↦ F. Kostić
56′
🔁 L. Paredes
↦ M. Locatelli
R. Krunić 🔁
↦ T. Pobega
58′
A. Rebić 🔁
↦ O. Giroud
64′
C. De Ketelaere 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
64′
78′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ D. Vlahović
80′
🔁 M. Soulé
↦ A. Rabiot
D. Origi 🔁
↦ Rafael Leão
84′
A. Vranckx 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
84′
Sandro Tonali 🟨
94′
94′
🟨 Leandro Paredes
94′
🟨 Moise Kean
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-3-2-1
1 C. Tătărușanu G
20 P. Kalulu D
46 M. Gabbia D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
8 S. Tonali M
4 I. Bennacer M
32 T. Pobega M
10 Brahim Díaz M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
33 R. Krunić
12 A. Rebić
90 C. De Ketelaere
27 D. Origi
40 A. Vranckx
14 T. Bakayoko
96 A. Jungdal
21 S. Dest
83 A. Mirante
7 Y. Adli
5 F. Ballo
28 M. Thiaw

Coach: S. Pioli

Juventus

4-4-2
1 W. Szczęsny G
6 Danilo D
3 Bremer D
19 L. Bonucci D
12 Alex Sandro D
11 J. Cuadrado M
5 M. Locatelli M
25 A. Rabiot M
17 F. Kostić M
9 D. Vlahović F
14 A. Milik F
Bench (10)
8 W. McKennie
20 F. Miretti
32 L. Paredes
18 M. Kean
30 M. Soulé
44 N. Fagioli
36 M. Perin
24 D. Rugani
23 C. Pinsoglio
15 F. Gatti

Coach: M. Allegri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,11
U
3,38
B
3,65
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,11
U2,5 ✓
1,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.