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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Leverkusen

S S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

5,0

Scored

4,2

3,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+3,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

4,5

4,3

Scored

3,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,65 xG 0,52

72% Possession 28%

20 Shots 1

10 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 6. · Heidenheim 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+14	+11.5	13
2	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+10	+5.3	12
3	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+10	+1.1	12
4	Hoffenheim	5	4	0	1	+6	+0.2	12
5	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+4	+4.8	11
6	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
7	Wolfsburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+0.2	9
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.2	6
9	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.4	6
10	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.0	6
11	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	-5	+0.5	6
12	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-4	+0.0	5
13	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	-3.4	4
14	Bochum	5	0	3	2	-12	-6.9	3
15	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.4	2
16	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.7	1
17	Darmstadt	5	0	1	4	-10	-7.9	1
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-10	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+12	+5.3	9
2	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	+7.2	7
3	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.2	7
4	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.0	6
5	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.3	6
6	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
7	Werder Bremen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.6	6
8	Augsburg	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.7	5
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
10	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.2	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
12	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
13	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
14	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
15	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
16	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
17	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.8	9
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.3	6
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.1	6
4	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.4	4
5	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
6	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.3	3
7	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.0	3
8	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.4	3
10	M'gladbach	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
12	FC Koln	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
13	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
14	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-12	-7.9	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.