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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Freiburg

T T S S S

1–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

4,0

4,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

2,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,31 xG 2,54

43% Possession 57%

6 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Hoffenheim 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+12.1	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.3	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+0	+1.9	12
4	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.3	9
5	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
6	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.4	7
7	St Pauli	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.9	7
8	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.3	6
9	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
10	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.5	6
11	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	-3	-3.2	6
12	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.6	5
13	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-1	+1.0	4
14	Werder Bremen	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
15	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.4	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-4	-7.9	3
17	Heidenheim	5	1	0	4	-6	-4.3	3
18	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-7	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+15	+6.2	9
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.8	6
3	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
4	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.4	4
6	St Pauli	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.7	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.8	2
14	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
15	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.1	0
17	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0
18	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
2	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.9	6
3	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-4	-0.9	6
6	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
7	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
9	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.4	3
10	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.8	3
11	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
12	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.6	3
15	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
16	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.7	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.