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Bundesliga
Referee: Robert Hartmann
Hoffenheim
T S S T S
1–4
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,2
4,8
Scored
2,2
4,0
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+3,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,3
5,3
Scored
2,3
4,7
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+4,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,85 xG 3,04
38% Possession 62%
12 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 10
4 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 6. · Bayern Munich 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 3 3 0 0 +12 +6.9 9
2 Dortmund 3 2 1 0 +5 +4.0 7
3 FC Koln 3 2 1 0 +4 +1.2 7
4 St Pauli 4 2 1 1 +1 +0.8 7
5 Ein Frankfurt 3 2 0 1 +3 +0.9 6
6 Hoffenheim 3 2 0 1 +1 -0.3 6
7 Stuttgart 4 2 0 2 +0 +0.5 6
8 RB Leipzig 3 2 0 1 -3 +0.9 6
9 Wolfsburg 3 1 2 0 +2 +0.3 5
10 Werder Bremen 3 1 1 1 +1 -1.1 4
11 Leverkusen 3 1 1 1 +1 +1.2 4
12 Augsburg 3 1 0 2 +0 -6.1 3
13 Freiburg 3 1 0 2 -3 +1.1 3
14 Union Berlin 3 1 0 2 -4 -2.9 3
15 Mainz 3 0 1 2 -2 +0.6 1
16 M'gladbach 3 0 1 2 -5 +1.1 1
17 Hamburg 3 0 1 2 -7 -3.7 1
18 Heidenheim 3 0 0 3 -6 -5.3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Bayern Munich
Vladimír Coufal 🟨
9′
12′
🟨 Luis Díaz
29′
🟨 Leon Goretzka
44′
H. Kane 0–1
L. Karl
Half-time 0–2
48′
H. Kane 0–2
62′
🔁 J. Kimmich
↦ L. Goretzka
62′
🔁 M. Olise
↦ L. Karl
62′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ N. Jackson
A. Kramaric 🔁
↦ M. Damar
67′
69′
🔁 D. Upamecano
↦ Kim Min-Jae
75′
ℹ️ Michael Olise
VAR: Penalty confirmed
77′
H. Kane 0–3
G. Promel 🔁
↦ W. Burger
78′
I. Bebou 🔁
↦ F. Asllani
78′
1–3 V. Coufal
82′
K. Akpoguma 🔁
↦ V. Coufal
83′
U. Tohumcu 🔁
↦ L. Avdullahu
83′
86′
🔁 T. Bischof
↦ S. Boey
90′
S. Gnabry 1–4
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

4-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
34 V. Coufal D
2 R. Hranac D
21 A. Hajdari D
13 Bernardo D
29 B. Toure M
7 L. Avdullahu M
18 W. Burger M
22 A. Prass M
11 F. Asllani F
10 M. Damar F
Bench (9)
37 L. Philipp
35 Arthur Chaves
25 K. Akpoguma
27 A. Kramaric
17 U. Tohumcu
6 G. Promel
53 P. Benjamin
24 D. Mokwa Ntusu
9 I. Bebou

Coach: Christian Ilzer

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
23 S. Boey D
4 J. Tah D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
27 K. Laimer D
8 L. Goretzka M
45 A. Pavlovic M
42 L. Karl M
9 H. Kane M
14 L. Diaz M
11 N. Jackson F
Bench (9)
40 J. Urbig
2 D. Upamecano
22 R. Guerreiro
30 C. Kiala
6 J. Kimmich
17 M. Olise
20 T. Bischof
7 S. Gnabry
36 W. Mike

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,48
U
5,70
B ✓
1,32
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,30
U2,5
3,38
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Robert Hartmann · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.