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La Liga
Referee: Guillermo Cuadra
Espanol
T T U S T
2–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Espanol Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,8
4,0
Scored
0,7
2,8
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,7
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
14%
71%
Points per game
0,9
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
29%
71%
Both score Ø 50%
29%
71%
Average goals
1,6
4,1
Scored
0,6
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%
8 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 4
0 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 8
1 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Espanol 16. · Real Madrid 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 7 5 2 0 +13 17
2 Ath Madrid 8 5 2 1 +5 17
3 Sociedad 7 5 1 1 +4 16
4 Sevilla 6 4 2 0 +8 14
5 Osasuna 8 4 2 2 +0 14
6 Vallecano 8 4 1 3 +5 13
7 Ath Bilbao 8 3 4 1 +3 13
8 Valencia 8 3 3 2 +4 12
9 Barcelona 7 3 3 1 +4 12
10 Betis 7 3 3 1 +4 12
11 Mallorca 8 3 2 3 -5 11
12 Elche 8 2 3 3 -3 9
13 Villarreal 6 1 5 0 +3 8
14 Celta 8 2 1 5 -4 7
15 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 -4 7
16 Espanol 7 1 3 3 -3 6
17 Levante 8 0 4 4 -7 4
18 Granada 7 0 3 4 -7 3
19 Alaves 7 1 0 6 -10 3
20 Getafe 7 0 0 7 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Espanol Real Madrid
Adrián Embarba 🟨
11′
1–0 Raúl de Tomás
Adri Embarba
17′
29′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ E. Camavinga
Manu Morlanes 🔁
↦ Melendo
58′
2–0 Aleix Vidal
K. Bare
60′
62′
🔁 Casemiro
↦ T. Kroos
62′
🔁 L. Jović
↦ L. Modrić
Wu Lei 🔁
↦ Adri Embarba
65′
Nico Melamed 🔁
↦ Aleix Vidal
65′
71′
K. Benzema 2–1
L. Jović
72′
🔁 E. Hazard
↦ Vinícius Júnior
Óscar Gil 🟨
79′
Dídac Vilá 🔁
↦ Óscar Gil
81′
David López 🔁
↦ Darder
82′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Espanol

4-1-4-1
13 Diego López G
4 L. Cabrera D
24 Sergi Gómez D
3 Adrià Pedrosa D
12 Óscar Gil D
22 Aleix Vidal M
10 Darder M
20 K. Bare M
14 Melendo M
11 Raúl de Tomás F
23 Adri Embarba M
Bench (11)
6 Manu Morlanes
7 Wu Lei
21 Nico Melamed
17 Dídac Vilá
15 David López
34 Joan García
33 Álvaro García
16 Loren Morón
32 Gori
18 L. Dimata
19 Vadillo

Coach: Vicente Moreno

Real Madrid

4-1-3-2
1 T. Courtois G
4 D. Alaba D
6 Nacho D
3 Éder Militão D
10 L. Modrić M
8 T. Kroos M
17 Lucas Vázquez D
15 F. Valverde M
25 E. Camavinga M
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (8)
21 Rodrygo
14 Casemiro
16 L. Jović
7 E. Hazard
35 Miguel Gutiérrez
13 A. Lunin
5 Vallejo
26 Luis López

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,04
U
4,07
B
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,74
U2,5
2,13
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Guillermo Cuadra · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.