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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Barcelona

S U U S T

3–1

Full-time

Valencia

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 7/8 matches

Win Ø 41%

43%

38%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

43%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

57%

63%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

61% Possession 39%

12 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 9. · Valencia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	9	6	2	1	+5	20
2	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+12	17
3	Sevilla	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	Ath Madrid	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Osasuna	9	5	2	2	+1	17
6	Vallecano	9	5	1	3	+6	16
7	Ath Bilbao	8	3	4	1	+3	13
8	Valencia	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Barcelona	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Betis	8	3	3	2	+2	12
11	Villarreal	8	2	5	1	+4	11
12	Mallorca	9	3	2	4	-6	11
13	Espanol	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Elche	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Cadiz	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	Celta	9	2	1	6	-5	7
17	Granada	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	Levante	9	0	5	4	-7	5
19	Alaves	7	1	0	6	-10	3
20	Getafe	9	0	2	7	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Vallecano	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Sevilla	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Mallorca	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+8	7
8	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Valencia	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Espanol	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Elche	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Betis	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Osasuna	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Levante	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Celta	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Cadiz	5	0	3	2	-3	3
19	Alaves	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Real Madrid	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Ath Madrid	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Sevilla	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Sociedad	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Betis	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Villarreal	4	0	4	0	+0	4
10	Cadiz	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Celta	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Vallecano	5	1	1	3	-4	4
13	Elche	5	1	0	4	-5	3
14	Mallorca	4	1	0	3	-7	3
15	Barcelona	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Espanol	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Levante	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Granada	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Getafe	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.