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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Fulham

S T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Luton

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,96 xG 1,10

78% Possession 22%

13 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 13. · Luton 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.3	13
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+9	+6.3	12
3	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+7	+1.0	10
4	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.3	10
5	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.6	10
6	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.9	9
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.1	7
8	Brentford	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.4	6
9	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.9	6
10	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.9	6
11	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.5	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	+4.1	4
13	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-6	-8.2	4
14	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.9	3
15	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-6	-3.0	3
16	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.7	2
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-3	-6.6	1
18	Everton	4	0	1	3	-6	+0.5	1
19	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.6	7
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.6	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.6	6
4	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
5	Man United	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
6	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.4	4
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
8	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.8	3
9	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
10	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
11	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
12	Brentford	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
13	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
14	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-2	-5.7	1
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
16	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
17	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
18	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+1.4	7
2	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
3	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
4	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.7	6
5	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
6	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.7	4
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
11	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.1	3
12	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-5	-1.5	3
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.6	1
14	Everton	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.0	1
15	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
18	Man United	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.