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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Spezia

U T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

2,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,7

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

20%

80%

Points per game

0,8

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

80%

20%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

4,0

2,4

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

2,6

0,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 17. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	+13	13
3	Milan	5	4	1	0	+8	13
4	Roma	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	-1	9
7	Lazio	5	2	2	1	+5	8
8	Bologna	5	2	2	1	-3	8
9	Torino	5	2	1	2	+3	7
10	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Empoli	5	2	0	3	-3	6
12	Juventus	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Verona	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Spezia	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Venezia	5	1	0	4	-7	3
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Roma	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Bologna	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	+9	6
5	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	Torino	3	1	1	1	+3	4
8	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Verona	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Juventus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Spezia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Inter	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Empoli	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Milan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Juventus	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Genoa	3	1	1	1	-3	4
11	Spezia	3	1	1	1	-4	4
12	Roma	2	1	0	1	+3	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Venezia	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Verona	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Salernitana	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.