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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Empoli
U T U T U
2–4
Full-time
Roma
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 43%
36%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
68%
55%
Both score Ø 62%
73%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

58% Possession 42%
16 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Empoli 12. · Roma 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 22 16 5 1 +36 53
2 Napoli 23 15 4 4 +27 49
3 Milan 22 15 3 4 +22 48
4 Atalanta 22 12 7 3 +18 43
5 Juventus 22 12 5 5 +13 41
6 Fiorentina 22 11 3 8 +11 36
7 Lazio 23 10 6 7 +7 36
8 Roma 22 11 2 9 +8 35
9 Verona 23 9 6 8 +5 33
10 Torino 22 9 5 8 +9 32
11 Sassuolo 23 7 8 8 +1 29
12 Empoli 22 8 5 9 -8 29
13 Bologna 22 8 3 11 -8 27
14 Spezia 23 7 4 12 -18 25
15 Udinese 21 4 9 8 -8 21
16 Sampdoria 23 5 5 13 -12 20
17 Venezia 22 4 6 12 -20 18
18 Cagliari 23 3 8 12 -22 17
19 Genoa 23 1 10 12 -25 13
20 Salernitana 21 3 2 16 -36 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Empoli Roma
24′
⚽ T. Abraham 0–1
Sérgio Oliveira
33′
⚽ T. Abraham 0–2
35′
⚽ Sérgio Oliveira 0–3
N. Zaniolo
37′
⚽ N. Zaniolo 0–4
H. Mkhitaryan
M. Viti 🔁
↦ R. Marchizza
42′
Half-time 0–4
52′
🟨 Gianluca Mancini
1–4 A. Pinamonti ⚽
F. Bandinelli
55′
60′
🔁 M. Viña
↦ A. Maitland-Niles
Lorenzo Tonelli 🟨
63′
2–4 N. Bajrami ⚽
L. Henderson
72′
75′
🔁 J. Veretout
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
79′
🔁 F. Ohene-Gyan
↦ N. Zaniolo
P. Cutrone 🔁
↦ L. Henderson
81′
M. Benassi 🔁
↦ F. Bandinelli
81′
Marco Benassi 🟨
83′
85′
🟨 Bryan Cristante
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Empoli

4-3-2-1
13 G. Vicario G
26 L. Tonelli D
20 R. Fiamozzi D
3 R. Marchizza D
34 A. Ismajli D
8 L. Henderson M
25 F. Bandinelli M
10 N. Bajrami M
27 S. Żurkowski M
28 S. Ricci M
99 A. Pinamonti F
Bench (11)
42 M. Viti
9 P. Cutrone
15 M. Benassi
36 L. Pezzola
31 A. Rizza
6 S. Romagnoli
19 A. La Mantia
22 J. Furlan
1 S. Ujkani
23 K. Asllani
16 J. Fazzini

Coach: A. Andreazzoli

Roma

3-4-1-2
1 Rui Patrício G
6 C. Smalling D
2 R. Karsdorp M
23 G. Mancini D
3 Ibañez D
77 H. Mkhitaryan F
27 Sérgio Oliveira M
4 B. Cristante M
15 A. Maitland-Niles M
22 N. Zaniolo F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
5 M. Viña
17 J. Veretout
64 F. Ohene-Gyan
59 N. Zalewski
24 M. Kumbulla
75 D. Keramitsis
87 Daniel Fuzato
11 Carles Pérez
52 E. Bove
92 S. El Shaarawy
14 E. Shomurodov
63 P. Boer

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,04
U
4,08
B ✓
1,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,49
U2,5
2,60
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.