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Serie A
Referee: F Maresca
Atalanta
U S T T S
1–1
Full-time
Milan
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,8
This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
6,0
Scored
2,0
4,0
Conceded
0,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
11 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 2
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 6
0 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 6
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Milan 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 2 2 0 0 +7 6
2 Inter 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 Fiorentina 2 1 1 0 +1 4
4 Lazio 2 1 1 0 +1 4
5 Torino 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Juventus 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 Milan 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Roma 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Sassuolo 2 1 0 1 -2 3
11 Spezia 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Salernitana 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Empoli 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Udinese 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Cremonese 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Bologna 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Lecce 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Sampdoria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
19 Verona 1 0 0 1 -3 0
20 Monza 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Milan
Rafael Tolói 🟨
16′
1–0 R. Malinovskyi
J. Mæhle
29′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 Ante Rebić
Hans Hateboer 🟨
48′
58′
🔁 C. De Ketelaere
↦ Brahim Díaz
58′
🔁 O. Giroud
↦ A. Rebić
66′
🔁 A. Saelemaekers
↦ Junior Messias
66′
🔁 D. Origi
↦ Rafael Leão
68′
I. Bennacer 1–1
A. Saelemaekers
A. Lookman 🔁
↦ R. Malinovskyi
73′
L. Muriel 🔁
↦ D. Zapata
73′
G. Scalvini 🔁
↦ M. Pašalić
73′
75′
🟨 Sandro Tonali
Berat Djimsiti 🟨
78′
78′
🟨 Theo Hernández
C. Okoli 🔁
↦ B. Djimsiti
82′
84′
🔁 A. Florenzi
↦ D. Calabria
N. Zortea 🔁
↦ J. Mæhle
89′
Marten de Roon 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 J. Musso G
2 R. Tolói D
28 M. Demiral D
19 B. Djimsiti D
33 H. Hateboer M
15 M. de Roon M
7 T. Koopmeiners M
3 J. Mæhle M
18 R. Malinovskyi F
88 M. Pašalić F
91 D. Zapata F
Bench (10)
11 A. Lookman
9 L. Muriel
42 G. Scalvini
5 C. Okoli
21 N. Zortea
22 M. Ruggeri
93 B. Soppy
10 J. Boga
57 M. Sportiello
31 F. Rossi

Coach: G. Gasperini

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
20 P. Kalulu D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
4 I. Bennacer M
8 S. Tonali M
30 Junior Messias M
10 Brahim Díaz M
17 Rafael Leão M
12 A. Rebić F
Bench (13)
90 C. De Ketelaere
9 O. Giroud
56 A. Saelemaekers
27 D. Origi
25 A. Florenzi
14 T. Bakayoko
24 S. Kjær
5 F. Ballo
32 T. Pobega
46 M. Gabbia
1 C. Tătărușanu
83 A. Mirante
7 Y. Adli

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,79
U ✓
3,49
B
2,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,74
U2,5 ✓
2,11
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Maresca · 123 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.