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Serie A

Referee: S Sozza

Milan

S T S S U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

64%

36%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

64%

43%

Both score Ø 61%

71%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Fiorentina 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	13	2	0	+25	41
2	Lazio	14	9	3	2	+18	30
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+13	30
4	Inter	15	10	0	5	+12	30
5	Juventus	14	8	4	2	+14	28
6	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	27
7	Roma	15	8	3	4	+4	27
8	Udinese	15	6	6	3	+7	24
9	Torino	15	6	3	6	-1	21
10	Fiorentina	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Bologna	15	5	4	6	-5	19
12	Salernitana	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Empoli	15	4	5	6	-7	17
14	Monza	15	5	1	9	-6	16
15	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-7	16
16	Lecce	15	3	6	6	-3	15
17	Spezia	15	3	4	8	-12	13
18	Cremonese	15	0	7	8	-15	7
19	Sampdoria	15	1	3	11	-21	6
20	Verona	15	1	2	12	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Inter	7	6	0	1	+15	18
3	Milan	7	6	0	1	+10	18
4	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+14	17
5	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	Bologna	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+6	12
8	Monza	8	4	0	4	+3	12
9	Salernitana	7	3	2	2	+4	11
10	Sassuolo	7	3	2	2	+4	11
11	Torino	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Atalanta	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Fiorentina	7	3	2	2	-1	11
14	Empoli	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Roma	7	3	1	3	+2	10
16	Spezia	7	2	4	1	+1	10
17	Lecce	7	1	4	2	-1	7
18	Verona	8	1	0	7	-9	3
19	Cremonese	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Sampdoria	8	0	2	6	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Roma	8	5	2	1	+2	17
3	Atalanta	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Milan	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	Udinese	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	Inter	8	4	0	4	-3	12
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+0	11
9	Torino	8	3	1	4	-3	10
10	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	+0	8
11	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Empoli	7	1	3	3	-6	6
13	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	6
14	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-11	5
15	Cremonese	8	0	4	4	-6	4
16	Monza	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sampdoria	7	1	1	5	-10	4
18	Bologna	7	1	1	5	-11	4
19	Spezia	8	1	0	7	-13	3
20	Verona	7	0	2	5	-8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.