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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Toulouse

T T T S T

4–2

Full-time

Montpellier

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

63%

88%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,1

2,4

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 23

6 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 11

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 12

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 6

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Montpellier 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+23	25
2	Marseille	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Lorient	9	7	1	1	+6	22
4	Lens	8	5	3	0	+9	18
5	Rennes	9	4	3	2	+8	15
6	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+1	14
7	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+6	13
8	Lille	9	4	1	4	-1	13
9	Montpellier	8	4	0	4	+4	12
10	Troyes	8	3	1	4	-2	10
11	Clermont	8	3	1	4	-4	10
12	Toulouse	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Nice	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Angers	9	2	2	5	-12	8
15	Nantes	8	1	4	3	-3	7
16	Auxerre	8	2	1	5	-11	7
17	Reims	8	1	3	4	-7	6
18	Strasbourg	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	Brest	8	1	2	5	-10	5
20	Ajaccio	8	1	1	6	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Lens	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Lorient	4	4	0	0	+5	12
5	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+7	9
7	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Lille	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Clermont	4	2	0	2	-4	6
10	Nantes	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-2	5
12	Troyes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Auxerre	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Angers	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Strasbourg	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Reims	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Brest	4	0	2	2	-8	2
19	Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Nice	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+18	15
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+1	10
5	Lille	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Nice	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Lens	4	1	3	0	+3	6
8	Rennes	5	1	3	1	+1	6
9	Troyes	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Clermont	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Reims	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Angers	4	1	1	2	-6	4
13	Montpellier	3	1	0	2	+3	3
14	Brest	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Toulouse	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Ajaccio	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-8	3
18	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.