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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Toulouse

S S T T T

2–2

Full-time

Nantes

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

3,2

1,6

Scored

1,4

0,6

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,10 xG 1,46

46% Possession 54%

20 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Nantes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	4	0	2	+7	+3.0	12
2	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+6	+2.7	12
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.8	12
4	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.7	12
5	Strasbourg	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.2	12
6	Lille	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.0	10
7	Lens	5	3	0	2	+3	+3.8	9
8	Rennes	5	2	2	1	-1	-3.2	8
9	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-5	-1.4	7
10	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.1	6
11	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.5	6
12	Paris FC	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.2	6
13	Nice	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.0	6
14	Angers	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.9	5
15	Brest	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
16	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-2	+2.1	4
17	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.1	4
18	Metz	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.3	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.8	9
3	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
4	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
5	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
6	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
7	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
8	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
9	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.4	6
10	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Brest	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.1	4
13	Le Havre	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
14	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
15	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
16	Paris FC	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
17	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
18	Metz	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.2	6
2	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
3	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
4	Marseille	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
5	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
6	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.0	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
8	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
9	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
10	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
11	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
12	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.4	1
13	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
14	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
17	Nice	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.