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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Man City

T S S U S

5–1

Full-time

Burnley

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,03 xG 0,41

69% Possession 31%

21 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 9. · Burnley 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+6	+3.0	15
2	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.1	10
3	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+7	+0.1	10
4	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+1	+2.9	10
5	Crystal Palace	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.8	9
6	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+5	+2.7	8
7	Sunderland	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.9	8
8	Fulham	5	2	2	1	+1	-1.5	8
9	Man City	5	2	1	2	+4	+3.0	7
10	Everton	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.0	7
11	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.0	7
12	Leeds	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.5	7
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-4	+2.9	7
14	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+0	+2.0	6
15	Brighton	5	1	2	2	-2	+1.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.9	5
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-3	-6.3	4
18	Aston Villa	5	0	3	2	-4	-4.6	3
19	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-8	-2.8	3
20	Wolves	5	0	0	5	-9	-3.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+8	+4.4	7
3	Sunderland	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
4	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.1	7
5	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
6	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.0	7
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.1	6
8	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
9	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
10	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
11	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.5	4
12	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
13	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
14	Man City	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
15	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
17	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
18	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.4	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.2	7
2	Crystal Palace	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.2	7
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
4	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.4	4
5	Man City	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.4	4
6	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
7	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
8	Newcastle	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
9	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
10	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
11	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.1	3
12	Aston Villa	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
13	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.6	2
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
15	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
16	Man United	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
17	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
18	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.0	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.8	0
20	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.