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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Nott'm Forest

S U T U S

0–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

27%

46%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

38%

62%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,19 xG 1,73

47% Possession 53%

18 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 17. · Liverpool 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	27	17	7	3	+32	+27.8	58
2	Man City	27	17	5	5	+31	+19.0	56
3	Aston Villa	27	15	6	6	+10	-4.3	51
4	Chelsea	27	12	9	6	+17	+14.9	45
5	Man United	26	12	9	5	+10	+13.3	45
6	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+6	+12.2	42
7	Brentford	27	12	4	11	+3	+6.0	40
8	Bournemouth	27	9	11	7	-2	+0.5	38
9	Everton	26	10	7	9	-1	-7.4	37
10	Newcastle	27	10	6	11	-1	+8.0	36
11	Sunderland	26	9	9	8	-3	-14.7	36
12	Brighton	27	8	10	9	+2	+1.9	34
13	Fulham	26	10	4	12	-5	-6.3	34
14	Crystal Palace	26	8	8	10	-4	+7.5	32
15	Leeds	27	7	10	10	-9	-1.9	31
16	Tottenham	26	7	8	11	-1	-9.9	29
17	Nott'm Forest	26	7	6	13	-13	-8.1	27
18	West Ham	27	6	7	14	-17	-11.7	25
19	Burnley	27	4	7	16	-23	-30.4	19
20	Wolves	27	1	7	19	-32	-16.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+25	+13.2	35
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.8	32
3	Aston Villa	14	9	2	3	+9	+2.8	29
4	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	+12.1	27
5	Sunderland	13	7	5	1	+11	-3.4	26
6	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	+8.6	25
7	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+7	+9.3	24
8	Chelsea	14	6	5	3	+7	+8.9	23
9	Fulham	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.3	23
10	Bournemouth	13	6	5	2	+6	+9.8	23
11	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+4	+9.4	23
12	Leeds	13	6	4	3	+4	+6.8	22
13	Brighton	13	5	6	2	+6	+3.6	21
14	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.0	16
15	Nott'm Forest	13	3	4	6	-5	+1.2	13
16	Crystal Palace	13	2	6	5	-5	+8.0	12
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
18	Tottenham	13	2	4	7	-2	-2.4	10
19	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-7	-10.6	10
20	Wolves	14	1	3	10	-17	-6.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	7	5	2	+9	+12.0	26
2	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+10	+6.0	22
3	Aston Villa	13	6	4	3	+1	-7.1	22
4	Man City	13	6	3	4	+6	+5.8	21
5	Everton	13	6	3	4	+1	-6.5	21
6	Crystal Palace	13	6	2	5	+1	-0.5	20
7	Tottenham	13	5	4	4	+1	-7.5	19
8	Man United	13	4	6	3	+0	+1.3	18
9	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-1	+2.8	18
10	Brentford	13	5	0	8	-6	-2.6	15
11	Bournemouth	14	3	6	5	-8	-9.3	15
12	Nott'm Forest	13	4	2	7	-8	-9.3	14
13	Brighton	14	3	4	7	-4	-1.7	13
14	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-5	-1.3	13
15	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	-9.9	13
16	Fulham	13	3	2	8	-11	-5.1	11
17	Sunderland	13	2	4	7	-14	-11.3	10
18	Leeds	14	1	6	7	-13	-8.7	9
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-16	-19.8	9
20	Wolves	13	0	4	9	-15	-9.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.