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Eredivisie
Referee: R Hensgens
Utrecht
T U T S S
1–1
Full-time
Zwolle
S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Zwolle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 22/23 matches
Win Ø 33%
36%
30%
Points per game
1,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
55%
70%
Both score Ø 69%
68%
70%
Average goals
2,8
3,6
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,3
2,1
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,11 xG 0,85
54% Possession 46%
24 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
9 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Utrecht 10. · Zwolle 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 24 20 2 2 +41 +25.3 62
2 Feyenoord 23 14 3 6 +21 +21.0 45
3 Nijmegen 24 12 7 5 +19 +7.3 43
4 Ajax 23 10 10 3 +14 +6.9 40
5 Twente 24 9 11 4 +13 +24.2 38
6 Sparta Rotterdam 23 11 4 8 -7 -1.8 37
7 AZ Alkmaar 23 10 6 7 +2 +15.3 36
8 Groningen 23 9 4 10 +1 +7.9 31
9 Heerenveen 23 8 6 9 -2 +9.2 30
10 Utrecht 22 8 5 9 +5 -0.9 29
11 For Sittard 24 8 5 11 -7 -13.8 29
12 Excelsior 24 7 5 12 -15 -15.3 26
13 Zwolle 23 7 5 11 -16 -16.3 26
14 Volendam 24 6 6 12 -13 -19.8 24
15 Go Ahead Eagles 23 4 11 8 -6 -15.6 23
16 NAC Breda 24 5 7 12 -11 -6.9 22
17 Telstar 23 3 9 11 -12 -11.4 18
18 Heracles 23 5 2 16 -27 -15.5 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Utrecht Zwolle
1–0 A. Alarcon
D. de Wit
12′
Half-time 1–0
O. Agougil 🔁
↦ N. Vesterlund
46′
D. Min 🔁
↦ A. Stepanov
62′
Oualid Agougil 🟨
65′
71′
🔁 J. Faberski
↦ Z. Buurmeester
J. Karlsson 🔁
↦ Y. Cathline
73′
79′
T. Oosting 1–1
J. Faberski
90′
🔁 T. Velthuis
↦ N. Fichtinger
S. Haller 🔁
↦ G. Zechiel
91′
93′
🟥 Jan Faberski
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Utrecht

4-2-3-1
1 V. Barkas G
23 N. Vesterlund D
40 M. Didden D
3 M. van der Hoorn D
16 S. El Karouani D
27 A. Engwanda M
21 G. Zechiel M
77 A. Alarcon M
20 D. de Wit M
10 Y. Cathline M
18 A. Stepanov F
Bench (12)
25 M. Brouwer
5 E. Adiele
8 C. Bozdogan
9 D. Min
11 J. Karlsson
15 A. Blake
22 M. Rodriguez
24 N. Viergever
38 O. Agougil
46 J. van Ommeren
53 N. Viereck
91 S. Haller

Coach: Ron Jans

Zwolle

4-3-3
16 T. de Graaff G
6 T. Gooijer D
28 S. Graves D
4 A. Garcia MacNulty D
2 S. Floranus D
25 T. Oosting M
34 N. Fichtinger M
8 Z. Buurmeester M
9 Y. Namli F
10 K. Kostons F
7 S. Shoretire F
Bench (10)
48 L. Bakker
41 D. Verduin
3 O. Aertssen
42 D. Ruward
5 T. Velthuis
26 J. Pereira da Gama
20 G. Reiziger
18 O. Velanas
29 T. Buitink
19 J. Faberski

Coach: Henry Van Der Vegt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,62
U ✓
3,97
B
4,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,72
U2,5 ✓
2,02
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Hensgens · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.