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Ekstraklasa
Referee: Piotr Lasyk
Korona Kielce
U S U S S
1–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Korona Kielce Pogon Szczecin
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
43%
43%
Points per game
1,6
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
29%
71%
Both score Ø 57%
43%
71%
Average goals
2,4
3,4
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,0
1,9
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
17 Shots 21
6 Shots on target 10
4 Blocked shots 4
9 Goalkeeper saves 5
12 Corners 7
5 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Korona Kielce 5. · Pogon Szczecin 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Wisla Plock 7 5 1 1 +6 +6.2 16
2 Cracovia 7 4 2 1 +4 +2.5 14
3 Gornik Zabrze 7 4 0 3 +5 -0.2 12
4 Jagiellonia 5 4 0 1 +3 -2.5 12
5 Korona Kielce 7 3 2 2 +3 -2.1 11
6 Lech Poznan 6 3 1 2 -1 +6.0 10
7 Pogon Szczecin 7 3 1 3 -2 +2.0 10
8 Zaglebie 7 2 3 2 +3 -1.8 9
9 Radomiak Radom 7 2 2 3 +1 -0.1 8
10 Nieciecza 7 2 2 3 +0 -0.2 8
11 Motor Lublin 6 2 2 2 -3 -1.0 8
12 Arka Gdynia 7 2 2 3 -3 -3.8 8
13 Lechia Gdansk 8 2 2 4 -5 -2.9 8
14 Legia 5 2 1 2 +2 +3.6 7
15 Widzew Lodz 7 2 1 4 +0 +2.2 7
16 GKS Katowice 8 2 1 5 -7 -6.8 7
17 Rakow 5 2 0 3 -3 -0.3 6
18 Piast Gliwice 5 0 3 2 -3 -0.7 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Korona Kielce Pogon Szczecin
15′
🟨 Sam Greenwood
1–0 D. Blanik
38′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Przyborek
↦ K. Smolinski
56′
🔁 F. Ulvestad
↦ J. Bieganski
56′
🔁 P. Mukairu
↦ K. Kostorz
V. Popov 🔁
↦ Nono
65′
V. Nikolov 🔁
↦ D. Blanik
70′
N. Niski 🔁
↦ Antonin
70′
70′
🔁 R. Molnar
↦ S. Greenwood
W. Kaminski 🔁
↦ M. Remacle
76′
S. Davidovic 🔁
↦ W. Dlugosz
77′
87′
🔁 D. Keramitsis
↦ L. Koutris
Bartłomiej Smolarczyk 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Korona Kielce

3-4-3
1 X. Dziekonski G
24 B. Smolarczyk D
5 P. Resta D
6 M. Pieczek D
71 W. Dlugosz M
8 M. Remacle M
88 T. Svetlin M
3 K. Matuszewski M
10 Nono F
70 Antonin F
7 D. Blanik F
Bench (11)
87 R. Mamla
9 S. Davidovic
11 V. Nikolov
13 M. Strzebonski
15 N. Niski
21 K. Ciszek
23 S. Rubezic
26 V. Popov
27 W. Kaminski
37 H. Zwozny
61 J. Budnicki

Coach: Jacek Zieliński

Pogon Szczecin

4-1-4-1
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
22 D. Loncar D
2 M. Huja D
32 L. Koutris D
6 J. Bieganski M
7 M. Juwara M
90 S. Greenwood M
61 K. Smolinski M
11 K. Grosicki M
99 K. Kostorz F
Bench (9)
31 K. Kaminski
13 D. Keramitsis
17 J. Lis
19 M. Ndiaye
8 F. Ulvestad
35 M. Wojciechowski
10 A. Przyborek
18 P. Mukairu
9 R. Molnar

Coach: Tomasz Grzegorczyk

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Piotr Lasyk · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,3 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.