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Championship

Referee: B Toner

Oxford

S T T T U

2–2

Full-time

Leicester

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,10 xG 0,84

55% Possession 45%

19 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Oxford 22. · Leicester 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.6	12
2	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.2	10
3	Stoke	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.5	9
4	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
5	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+8	+4.2	8
6	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+5	-0.1	8
7	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.6	7
8	Portsmouth	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.6	7
9	Preston	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
10	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+0	+3.0	7
11	Ipswich	5	1	3	1	+4	+4.9	6
12	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.0	6
13	Millwall	4	2	0	2	-3	+2.0	6
14	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.7	5
15	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
16	Wrexham	4	1	1	2	+0	-5.2	4
17	Charlton	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.2	4
18	Hull	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.5	4
19	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.5	4
20	Blackburn	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.3	3
21	Derby	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.2	2
22	Oxford	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.7	1
23	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.0	1
24	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
2	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
3	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.9	6
4	Ipswich	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.2	5
5	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.7	4
6	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
7	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
9	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
10	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
11	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
12	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
13	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	+3.3	3
14	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
15	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.6	3
16	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
17	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
18	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0
23	Millwall	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.8	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.5	6
3	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.4	6
4	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
5	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.1	6
6	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.7	4
7	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
8	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
10	Wrexham	2	1	0	1	+1	-3.5	3
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.7	3
13	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.8	3
14	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
16	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
18	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
19	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
20	Hull	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
21	Charlton	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
22	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
23	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.