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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

5–0

Full-time

Hamburg

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,7

3,5

Scored

3,5

2,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

5,5

1,0

Scored

4,5

0,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

2,54 xG 0,58

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 9

12 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 3. · Hamburg 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+5	+4.0	7
2	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.2	7
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.9	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
5	Hoffenheim	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.3	6
6	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.9	6
7	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.3	5
8	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
9	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
10	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-5.0	3
11	Stuttgart	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.6	3
12	Freiburg	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.1	3
13	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.9	3
14	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.7	1
15	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.6	1
16	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.8	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.7	1
18	Heidenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+6	+1.2	3
2	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
3	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
4	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
6	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
7	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.0	3
8	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
9	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
10	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
14	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.7	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
16	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
2	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
3	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
4	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
6	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.7	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
9	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-5	-0.3	3
10	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
12	Hamburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
14	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
15	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
16	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
17	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
18	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.