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Eredivisie

Referee: Pol van Boekel

AZ Alkmaar

U U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Heracles

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,7

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%

27 Shots 15

12 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 10

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 14. · Heracles 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+16	19
2	Heracles	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Zwolle	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	PSV Eindhoven	6	3	2	1	+9	11
6	Vitesse	7	3	2	2	+6	11
7	Roda	6	3	2	1	+1	11
8	Groningen	7	3	1	3	+0	10
9	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	Heerenveen	7	1	4	2	-2	7
12	Den Haag	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Willem II	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Twente	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Cambuur	7	0	3	4	-16	3
18	De Graafschap	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Vitesse	3	3	0	0	+9	9
4	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+9	9
5	Heracles	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+4	9
7	Utrecht	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Roda	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Excelsior	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Willem II	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Den Haag	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Twente	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	De Graafschap	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+4	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	2	1	+5	5
4	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Feyenoord	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Den Haag	3	1	0	2	-2	3
9	Roda	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Cambuur	3	0	2	1	-3	2
11	Vitesse	4	0	2	2	-3	2
12	Twente	4	0	2	2	-3	2
13	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Heerenveen	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Excelsior	3	0	0	3	-6	0
17	Groningen	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	De Graafschap	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.