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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Sevilla

U T U T T

3–2

Full-time

Vallecano

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,4

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,6

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

40%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,4

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sevilla 20. · Vallecano 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+4	15
2	Real Madrid	6	4	2	0	+13	14
3	Celta	5	4	1	0	+8	13
4	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Ath Madrid	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Valencia	6	2	3	1	+1	9
7	Espanol	5	3	0	2	-5	9
8	La Coruna	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Eibar	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	-3	7
11	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	+1	5
12	Las Palmas	6	1	2	3	-1	5
13	Sp Gijon	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Betis	5	1	2	2	-5	5
15	Malaga	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Ath Bilbao	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Levante	5	0	3	2	-4	3
18	Getafe	5	1	0	4	-5	3
19	Granada	6	1	0	5	-8	3
20	Sevilla	5	0	2	3	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Celta	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Espanol	3	2	0	1	-4	6
7	Valencia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Las Palmas	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Betis	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Getafe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Levante	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Malaga	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	La Coruna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Sp Gijon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Granada	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+7	7
2	La Coruna	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Celta	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Barcelona	3	2	0	1	-1	6
7	Eibar	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Sp Gijon	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Espanol	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Granada	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Las Palmas	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Betis	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.