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La Liga
Referee: Alejandro Hernández
Ath Madrid
S T S T S
2–0
Full-time
Celta
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Celta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
4,3
1,8
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 40%
48%
32%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
68%
36%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
3,2
2,2
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%
13 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 7
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 9
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 7
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 5. · Celta 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 26 18 6 2 +32 60
2 Sevilla 25 14 9 2 +20 51
3 Betis 25 14 4 7 +17 46
4 Barcelona 24 11 9 4 +14 42
5 Ath Madrid 25 12 6 7 +11 42
6 Villarreal 25 10 9 6 +18 39
7 Sociedad 24 10 8 6 -1 38
8 Ath Bilbao 25 9 10 6 +8 37
9 Valencia 26 8 9 9 -4 33
10 Celta 25 8 8 9 +3 32
11 Osasuna 25 8 8 9 -5 32
12 Vallecano 25 9 4 12 -2 31
13 Espanol 25 7 8 10 -5 29
14 Elche 26 7 8 11 -9 29
15 Getafe 26 6 9 11 -4 27
16 Mallorca 25 6 8 11 -16 26
17 Granada 25 5 9 11 -13 24
18 Alaves 26 5 6 15 -23 21
19 Cadiz 25 3 11 11 -18 20
20 Levante 26 3 9 14 -23 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Celta
Stefan Savić 🟨
12′
José María Giménez 🟨
15′
17′
🟨 Iago Aspas
Jan Oblak 🟨
20′
1–0 Renan Lodi
G. Kondogbia
36′
Half-time 1–0
Reinildo Isnard Mandava 🟨
50′
2–0 Renan Lodi
G. Kondogbia
60′
A. Griezmann 🔁
↦ Á. Correa
63′
R. De Paul 🔁
↦ Renan Lodi
63′
Y. Carrasco 🔁
↦ Marcos Llorente
64′
T. Lemar 🔁
↦ G. Kondogbia
68′
71′
🟨 Néstor Araujo
L. Suárez 🔁
↦ João Félix
72′
75′
🔁 Thiago Galhardo
↦ Santi Mina
75′
🔁 Nolito
↦ F. Cervi
81′
🔁 A. Solari
↦ Denis Suárez
84′
🟨 Thiago Galhardo
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-5-2
13 J. Oblak G
24 Š. Vrsaljko M
15 S. Savić D
2 J. Giménez D
23 Reinildo D
12 Renan Lodi M
16 H. Herrera M
4 G. Kondogbia M
14 Marcos Llorente M
10 Á. Correa F
7 João Félix F
Bench (9)
8 A. Griezmann
5 R. De Paul
21 Y. Carrasco
11 T. Lemar
9 L. Suárez
1 B. Lecomte
22 Hermoso
18 Felipe
26 Javier Serrano

Coach: D. Simeone

Celta

4-1-3-2
1 M. Dituro G
2 Hugo Mallo D
4 N. Araujo D
15 J. Aidoo D
17 Javier Galán D
6 Denis Suárez M
11 F. Cervi M
23 Brais Méndez M
8 Fran Beltrán M
10 Iago Aspas F
22 Santi Mina F
Bench (11)
7 Thiago Galhardo
9 Nolito
21 A. Solari
24 J. Murillo
19 José Fontán
13 Rubén Blanco
20 Kevin Vázquez
18 O. Pineda
28 Carlos Domínguez
37 Coke Carrillo
14 R. Tapia

Coach: E. Coudet

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,63
U
3,87
B
5,83
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,00
U2,5 ✓
1,82
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Alejandro Hernández · 223 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.