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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

PSV Eindhoven

S S U S S

4–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

3,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

100%

25%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

67%

75%

Both score Ø 54%

33%

75%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

5,50 xG 0,24

60% Possession 40%

28 Shots 3

11 Shots on target 0

9 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · Nijmegen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+14	+10.8	11
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+8	+3.5	9
3	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+2.0	9
4	Twente	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.0	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.1	8
6	For Sittard	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.8	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.4	6
8	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.8	6
9	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.7	6
10	Heerenveen	5	2	0	3	-4	-5.8	6
11	Ajax	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.2	5
12	Excelsior	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.6	5
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	+1	-1.1	4
14	Vitesse	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Waalwijk	5	1	0	4	-9	+1.1	3
16	Volendam	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.7	0
17	Utrecht	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.9	0
18	Almere City	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+10	+5.9	7
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.2	6
3	Heracles	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
4	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
5	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
6	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
7	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.4	3
8	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
9	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
10	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
11	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
12	Excelsior	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.2	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.6	0
15	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-0.3	0
18	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.1	6
2	Twente	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.2	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.9	6
4	Sparta Rotterdam	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
5	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.8	4
6	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
8	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
9	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
10	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-4	-5.1	3
11	For Sittard	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
12	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
13	Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
14	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
15	Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
16	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
17	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0
18	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.