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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Rio Ave

U S T T U

1–1

Full-time

Famalicao

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,3

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,25 xG 0,85

56% Possession 44%

5 Shots 12

0 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 11. · Famalicao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+4	+4.7	13
2	Boavista	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	+3.0	10
4	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
5	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.3	7
7	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.6	6
9	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
10	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.1	4
11	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.0	4
13	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.3	4
14	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
15	Farense	4	1	0	3	+0	-2.5	3
16	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-1	+0.5	3
17	Portimonense	4	0	2	2	-8	-3.8	2
18	Chaves	4	0	0	4	-10	-4.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
2	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
4	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.8	4
7	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
8	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
10	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
12	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
13	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
14	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
16	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
2	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
4	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
5	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
6	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
7	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
8	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
10	Arouca	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.2	2
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.