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Championship

Referee: Lewis Smith

Derby

T U T U S

0–1

Full-time

Preston

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

3,8

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,34 xG 0,90

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Preston 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.5	16
2	Stoke	6	4	0	2	+5	+0.2	12
3	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+8	+0.5	11
4	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.5	11
5	Coventry	6	2	4	0	+8	+6.9	10
6	West Brom	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.0	10
7	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	+0	+4.0	10
8	QPR	6	3	1	2	-2	-1.9	10
9	Swansea	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.0	8
10	Preston	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
11	Portsmouth	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.3	8
12	Norwich	5	2	1	2	+1	-4.5	7
13	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.3	7
14	Ipswich	5	1	3	1	+4	+4.9	6
15	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	+4.0	6
16	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.0	6
17	Watford	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
18	Charlton	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.9	5
19	Derby	5	1	2	2	-3	-5.1	5
20	Hull	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.9	5
21	Wrexham	5	1	1	3	-2	-4.6	4
22	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.4	2
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.5	1
24	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.0	9
2	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
4	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.2	7
5	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.1	7
6	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
7	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+6	+5.2	5
8	Ipswich	3	1	2	0	+5	+4.2	5
9	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
10	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
11	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
12	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
13	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
14	Charlton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.3	4
15	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
16	Hull	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.6	3
17	Oxford	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
18	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.1	1
19	Wrexham	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0
23	Millwall	2	0	0	2	-5	+0.8	0
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+6	-0.1	7
2	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	-3.1	7
4	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.4	7
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
6	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.7	6
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
8	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.7	5
9	Portsmouth	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.0	5
10	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	-4.0	4
11	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.0	4
12	Wrexham	2	1	0	1	+1	-3.5	3
13	Swansea	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.4	3
14	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.9	3
15	QPR	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.8	3
16	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
17	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.3	2
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
19	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
20	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
21	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
22	Charlton	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
23	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
24	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.