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Championship
Referee: M Donohue
Southampton
S U T S U
0–0
Full-time
Portsmouth
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Portsmouth
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,18 xG 0,94
60% Possession 40%
9 Shots 10
1 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Southampton 16. · Portsmouth 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 5 4 1 0 +6 +2.4 13
2 Stoke 5 4 0 1 +6 +0.4 12
3 Bristol City 5 3 2 0 +8 +0.5 11
4 Leicester 5 3 1 1 +3 -2.3 10
5 West Brom 5 3 1 1 +2 +1.0 10
6 Coventry 5 2 3 0 +8 +7.7 9
7 Swansea 5 2 2 1 +2 +1.0 8
8 Preston 5 2 2 1 +1 -0.4 8
9 Norwich 5 2 1 2 +1 -4.5 7
10 Portsmouth 4 2 1 1 +1 +0.6 7
11 Birmingham 5 2 1 2 -1 +3.0 7
12 QPR 5 2 1 2 -3 -2.1 7
13 Millwall 5 2 1 2 -3 +2.3 7
14 Ipswich 5 1 3 1 +4 +4.9 6
15 Blackburn 5 2 0 3 +0 +1.0 6
16 Southampton 4 1 2 1 +0 +3.7 5
17 Watford 5 1 2 2 -1 -1.1 5
18 Charlton 5 1 2 2 -2 +0.9 5
19 Derby 5 1 2 2 -3 -5.1 5
20 Hull 5 1 2 2 -4 -2.9 5
21 Wrexham 5 1 1 3 -2 -4.6 4
22 Oxford 5 0 2 3 -3 -1.4 2
23 Sheffield Weds 5 0 1 4 -9 -2.5 1
24 Sheffield United 5 0 0 5 -11 -2.4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Southampton Portsmouth
26′
🔁 B. Killip
↦ N. Schmid
45′
🟨 Zak Swanson
Half-time 0–0
Taylor Harwood-Bellis 🟨
46′
46′
🔁 J. Williams
↦ C. Ogilvie
Jack Stephens 🟨
47′
Flynn Downes 🟨
65′
Mads Roerslev 🟨
68′
73′
🟨 John Swift
C. Jander 🔁
↦ F. Downes
74′
A. Armstrong 🔁
↦ C. Archer
74′
R. Stewart 🔁
↦ F. Azaz
75′
76′
🔁 T. Devlin
↦ A. Segecic
76′
🔁 L. Le Roux
↦ J. Swift
L. Scienza 🔁
↦ T. Fellows
82′
J. Robinson 🔁
↦ R. Fraser
82′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Southampton

31 G. Bazunu G
2 M. Roerslev Rasmussen D
5 J. Stephens D
6 T. Harwood-Bellis D
3 R. Manning D
4 F. Downes M
24 S. Charles M
18 T. Fellows M
10 F. Azaz M
26 R. Fraser M
19 C. Archer F
Bench (9)
1 A. McCarthy
12 R. Edwards
15 N. Wood
38 E. Jelert
20 C. Jander
8 L. Scienza
46 J. Robinson
9 A. Armstrong
11 R. Stewart

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1
1 N. Schmid G
22 Z. Swanson D
5 R. Poole D
6 C. Shaughnessy D
3 C. Ogilvie D
8 J. Swift M
21 A. Dozzell M
10 A. Segecic M
36 C. Chaplin M
23 J. Murphy M
9 C. Bishop F
Bench (9)
30 B. Killip
2 J. Williams
24 T. Devlin
4 J. Knight
7 M. Pack
16 L. Le Roux
11 F. Bianchini
47 Yang Min-Hyuk
27 M. Kirk

Coach: John Mousinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,72
U ✓
3,84
B
4,57
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
1,97
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Donohue · 188 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.