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League Cup
Referee: David Rock
Northampton
T T T T T
0–1
Full-time
Southampton
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Northampton Southampton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
0,5
0,7
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,7
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,49 xG 0,68
43% Possession 57%
16 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 8
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 19
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Northampton Southampton
11′
🟨 Ronnie Edwards
Half-time 0–0
J. Burroughs 🔁
↦ C. McCarthy
46′
E. Wheatley 🔁
↦ E. List
46′
48′
⚽ M. Fernandes 0–1
C. Archer
55′
🟨 Mateus Fernandes
Cameron McGeehan 🟨
56′
57′
🟨 Taylor Harwood-Bellis
63′
🔁 C. Taylor
↦ T. Harwood-Bellis
63′
🔁 F. Downes
↦ S. Charles
63′
🔁 K. Matsuki
↦ D. Downs
M. Forbes 🔁
↦ J. Willis
64′
T. Taylor 🔁
↦ C. McGeehan
64′
Joe Wormleighton 🟨
69′
71′
🔁 R. Fraser
↦ M. Fernandes
81′
🔁 A. Armstrong
↦ B. Brereton Diaz
86′
🟨 Flynn Downes
Jack Perkins 🟨
89′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Northampton

5-4-1
34 R. Fitzsimons G
16 J. Wormleighton D
3 C. McCarthy D
6 J. Willis D
35 M. Dyche D
21 J. Perkins D
8 C. McGeehan M
4 D. Campbell M
14 T. Fornah M
7 S. Hoskins M
10 E. List F
Bench (7)
1 L. Burge
2 J. Burroughs
18 M. Forbes
19 E. Wheatley
23 T. Taylor
33 M. Ireland
42 O. Evans

Coach: Kevin Anthony Jance Nolan

Southampton

3-4-2-1
1 A. McCarthy G
6 T. Harwood-Bellis D
15 N. Wood D
12 R. Edwards D
16 Y. Sugawara M
24 S. Charles M
18 M. Fernandes M
3 R. Manning M
19 C. Archer F
22 B. Brereton Diaz F
42 D. Downs F
Bench (9)
31 G. Bazunu
21 C. Taylor
5 J. Stephens
4 F. Downes
27 K. Matsuki
26 R. Fraser
46 J. Robinson
58 D. Moody
9 A. Armstrong

Coach: William Still

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.