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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Anzhony Rodrigues

Chaves

T T T T S

2–0

Full-time

Lusitânia Lourosa

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Lusitânia Lourosa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 39%

17%

60%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

67%

80%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,8

4,8

Scored

0,8

3,4

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Chaves 40. · Lusitânia Lourosa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Cinfães	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rebordosa	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	São João Ver	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Vila Real	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Alverca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Moncarapachense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Moura	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Maria da Fonte	3	2	0	1	-3	6
21	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
22	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	O Elvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
25	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Alcains	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	Paredes	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
77	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
78	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
79	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
89	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
140	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
141	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
142	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
143	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brito	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	SC Covilha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Alpendorada	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Lagoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Maria da Fonte	2	1	0	1	-4	3
45	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
46	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
7	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Cinfães	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Torreense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Atlético Arcos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Moura	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.