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2. Bundesliga
Referee: M Bacher
Ulm
U T S S T
0–1
Full-time
Karlsruhe
S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ulm Karlsruhe
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,7
4,7
Scored
1,3
2,7
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
This season — 2. Bundesliga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
0,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
63%
75%
Both score Ø 69%
63%
75%
Average goals
2,5
4,1
Scored
1,1
2,4
Conceded
1,4
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%
11 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 12
2 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ulm 15. · Karlsruhe 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Fortuna Dusseldorf 9 6 2 1 +7 20
2 Magdeburg 8 4 4 0 +8 16
3 Karlsruhe 8 4 4 0 +5 16
4 Paderborn 9 4 4 1 +4 16
5 Hannover 9 5 1 3 +4 16
6 Hamburg 8 4 3 1 +11 15
7 Hertha 9 4 2 3 +1 14
8 Elversberg 9 3 4 2 +5 13
9 FC Koln 9 3 3 3 +3 12
10 Kaiserslautern 9 3 3 3 +1 12
11 Greuther Furth 8 2 4 2 +3 10
12 Nurnberg 8 3 1 4 -5 10
13 Darmstadt 9 2 3 4 -3 9
14 Schalke 04 9 2 2 5 -4 8
15 Ulm 8 2 1 5 -2 7
16 Braunschweig 9 2 1 6 -12 7
17 Preußen Münster 9 1 3 5 -5 6
18 Regensburg 9 1 1 7 -21 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ulm Karlsruhe
28′
🟨 Nicolai Rapp
Half-time 0–0
65′
🔁 D. Herold
↦ L. Günther
65′
🔁 L. Pfeiffer
↦ F. Schleusener
65′
🔁 B. Conté
↦ D. Burnić
J. Nelson 🔁
↦ M. Krattenmacher
69′
82′
🟨 Budu Zivzivadze
87′
🔁 R. Heußer
↦ L. Jensen
87′
🔁 A. Hunziker
↦ B. Zivzivadze
Felix Higl 🟨
88′
Philipp Strompf 🟨
91′
91′
🟨 Marcel Franke
94′
M. Franke 0–1
Philipp Maier 🟨
95′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Ulm

3-4-2-1
1 N. Thiede G
6 T. Geyer D
32 P. Strompf D
27 N. Kolbe D
18 L. Stoll M
38 L. Hyryläinen M
26 P. Maier M
43 R. Rösch M
11 D. Chessa F
30 M. Krattenmacher F
33 F. Higl F
Bench (9)
13 J. Nelson
16 A. Keller
9 L. Röser
19 J. Meier
4 T. Gaal
10 A. Ludwig
12 M. Seybold
20 L. Ulrich
7 B. Allgeier

Coach: T. Wörle

Karlsruhe

4-2-2-2
1 M. Weiß G
2 S. Jung D
28 M. Franke D
4 M. Beifus D
29 L. Günther D
17 N. Rapp M
6 L. Jensen M
7 D. Burnić M
10 M. Wanitzek M
11 B. Zivzivadze F
24 F. Schleusener F
Bench (9)
20 D. Herold
16 L. Pfeiffer
31 B. Conté
5 R. Heußer
9 A. Hunziker
26 B. Bauer
30 R. Himmelmann
25 L. Egloff
39 E. Zengin

Coach: C. Eichner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,22
U
3,61
B ✓
2,10
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,61
U2,5 ✓
2,28
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Bacher · 49 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.