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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Hoffenheim

U S U S T

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 26%

32%

20%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

72%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

68%

52%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

63% Possession 37%

8 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 11. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	19	4	3	+43	61
2	RB Leipzig	26	17	6	3	+27	57
3	Wolfsburg	26	14	9	3	+23	51
4	Ein Frankfurt	26	12	11	3	+17	47
5	Dortmund	26	13	4	9	+17	43
6	Leverkusen	25	11	7	7	+15	40
7	Union Berlin	26	9	11	6	+8	38
8	Stuttgart	26	9	9	8	+6	36
9	M'gladbach	26	9	9	8	+4	36
10	Freiburg	25	9	7	9	-2	34
11	Hoffenheim	25	8	6	11	-4	30
12	Werder Bremen	26	7	9	10	-7	30
13	Augsburg	25	8	5	12	-11	29
14	FC Koln	26	5	8	13	-21	23
15	Bielefeld	26	6	4	16	-25	22
16	Hertha	25	5	6	14	-17	21
17	Mainz	25	5	6	14	-20	21
18	Schalke 04	26	1	7	18	-53	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+32	33
2	RB Leipzig	13	10	2	1	+15	32
3	Wolfsburg	12	8	4	0	+16	28
4	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	6	0	+12	27
5	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+13	23
6	Union Berlin	13	5	7	1	+10	22
7	Leverkusen	13	5	4	4	+6	19
8	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	+4	19
9	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+4	19
10	Hoffenheim	12	5	2	5	+5	17
11	Stuttgart	12	3	6	3	+4	15
12	Augsburg	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Bielefeld	14	4	1	9	-12	13
15	Mainz	13	3	2	8	-9	11
16	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	FC Koln	13	1	5	7	-9	8
18	Schalke 04	14	1	3	10	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	9	1	3	+11	28
2	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+12	25
3	Wolfsburg	14	6	5	3	+7	23
4	Leverkusen	12	6	3	3	+9	21
5	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+2	21
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	5	5	3	+5	20
7	Dortmund	14	6	2	6	+4	20
8	M'gladbach	13	4	5	4	+0	17
9	Werder Bremen	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	Union Berlin	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Freiburg	12	4	3	5	-6	15
12	FC Koln	13	4	3	6	-12	15
13	Augsburg	12	4	2	6	-5	14
14	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-9	13
15	Hertha	13	2	4	7	-6	10
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Bielefeld	12	2	3	7	-13	9
18	Schalke 04	12	0	4	8	-32	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.