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Ligue 1
Referee: C Turpin
Lyon
T S U S U
2–4
Full-time
Paris SG
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 63%
59%
66%
Points per game
2,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
59%
59%
Both score Ø 45%
62%
28%
Average goals
2,9
2,8
Scored
2,0
2,2
Conceded
0,9
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%
8 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 9
0 Blocked shots 0
5 Goalkeeper saves 5
1 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 3. · Paris SG 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lille 30 18 9 3 +31 63
2 Paris SG 29 19 3 7 +44 60
3 Lyon 29 17 9 3 +31 60
4 Monaco 30 18 5 7 +22 59
5 Lens 30 13 9 8 +4 48
6 Marseille 30 12 9 9 +2 45
7 Rennes 30 12 8 10 +4 44
8 Montpellier 30 12 8 10 -1 44
9 Metz 30 11 9 10 +4 42
10 Angers 30 11 7 12 -10 40
11 Nice 30 11 6 13 -2 39
12 Reims 30 9 11 10 +0 38
13 Bordeaux 30 10 6 14 -6 36
14 Brest 30 10 5 15 -10 35
15 Strasbourg 30 9 6 15 -7 33
16 St Etienne 30 8 9 13 -16 33
17 Lorient 30 7 8 15 -18 29
18 Nimes 30 8 5 17 -26 29
19 Nantes 30 5 13 12 -15 28
20 Dijon 30 2 9 19 -31 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Paris SG
15′
K. Mbappé 0–1
32′
Danilo Pereira 0–2
Marquinhos
Tino Kadewere 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–3
47′
Á. Di María 0–3
52′
K. Mbappé 0–4
M. Verratti
I. Slimani 🔁
↦ M. Depay
56′
Bruno Guimarães 🔁
↦ Thiago Mendes
56′
L. Dubois 🔁
↦ T. Kadewere
56′
1–4 I. Slimani
M. Cornet
62′
70′
🔁 Neymar
↦ K. Mbappé
M. Cherki 🔁
↦ K. Toko Ekambi
74′
S. Diomande 🔁
↦ J. Denayer
78′
2–4 M. Cornet
M. Cherki
81′
86′
🔁 C. Dagba
↦ A. Florenzi
86′
🔁 Ander Herrera
↦ I. Gueye
Sinaly Diomande 🟨
90′
92′
🔁 J. Draxler
↦ M. Kean
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Lyon

4-3-3
1 Anthony Lopes G
6 Marcelo D
22 M. De Sciglio D
5 J. Denayer D
23 Thiago Mendes M
12 Lucas Paquetá M
25 M. Caqueret M
10 M. Depay F
7 K. Toko Ekambi F
27 M. Cornet D
11 T. Kadewere F
Bench (9)
20 I. Slimani
39 Bruno Guimarães
14 L. Dubois
18 M. Cherki
2 S. Diomande
26 M. Bard
3 D. Benlamri
30 J. Pollersbeck
17 M. Gusto

Coach: R. Garcia

Paris SG

4-2-3-1
1 K. Navas G
5 Marquinhos D
24 A. Florenzi D
3 P. Kimpembe D
22 A. Diallo D
11 Á. Di María M
6 M. Verratti M
27 I. Gueye M
15 Danilo Pereira M
7 K. Mbappé M
18 M. Kean F
Bench (9)
10 Neymar
31 C. Dagba
21 Ander Herrera
23 J. Draxler
8 L. Paredes
25 M. Bakker
16 Sergio Rico
20 L. Kurzawa
12 Rafinha

Coach: M. Pochettino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,89
U
3,82
B ✓
2,25
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,53
U2,5
2,47
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.