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Bundesliga
Referee: B Cortus
Stuttgart
T S T T U
1–3
Full-time
Leverkusen
T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,7
4,0
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
75%
75%
Both score Ø 75%
75%
75%
Average goals
4,3
4,5
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

64% Possession 36%
18 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Stuttgart 12. · Leverkusen 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 5 4 1 0 +16 13
2 Wolfsburg 4 4 0 0 +5 12
3 Mainz 5 3 1 1 +4 10
4 Dortmund 4 3 0 1 +4 9
5 Freiburg 5 2 3 0 +2 9
6 FC Koln 5 2 2 1 +2 8
7 Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 +6 7
8 Union Berlin 4 1 3 0 +1 6
9 Hertha 5 2 0 3 -5 6
10 Hoffenheim 5 1 2 2 +1 5
11 Augsburg 5 1 2 2 -6 5
12 Stuttgart 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 RB Leipzig 5 1 1 3 -1 4
14 Bielefeld 5 0 4 1 -2 4
15 M'gladbach 5 1 1 3 -4 4
16 Ein Frankfurt 4 0 3 1 -3 3
17 Bochum 5 1 0 4 -9 3
18 Greuther Furth 5 0 1 4 -10 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Leverkusen
2′
R. Andrich 0–1
M. Bakker
19′
P. Schick 0–2
F. Wirtz
31′
🟥 Robert Andrich
36′
🟨 Jeremie Frimpong
37′
🟨 Mitchel Bakker
1–2 O. Mangala
38′
39′
🔁 K. Demirbay
↦ K. Bellarabi
Half-time 1–2
50′
🔁 P. Hincapié
↦ P. Schick
58′
🟨 Charles Aránguiz
P. Stenzel 🔁
↦ H. Ito
60′
H. Al Ghaddioui 🔁
↦ O. Mangala
60′
Atakan Karazor 🟨
63′
70′
F. Wirtz 1–3
P. Klement 🔁
↦ A. Karazor
71′
M. Klimowicz 🔁
↦ R. Massimo
71′
Tanguy Coulibaly 🟨
75′
Ö. Beyaz 🔁
↦ T. Coulibaly
83′
86′
🔁 N. Amiri
↦ F. Wirtz
86′
🔁 A. Adli
↦ M. Diaby
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Stuttgart

3-4-1-2
1 F. Müller G
4 M. Kempf D
16 A. Karazor M
24 B. Sosa M
5 K. Mavropanos D
37 H. Ito D
3 W. Endo M
23 O. Mangala F
30 R. Massimo M
7 T. Coulibaly F
17 Omar Marmoush F
Bench (9)
15 P. Stenzel
18 H. Al Ghaddioui
21 P. Klement
31 M. Klimowicz
34 Ö. Beyaz
10 D. Didavi
11 E. Thommy
6 C. Mola
33 F. Bredlow

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
4 J. Tah D
30 J. Frimpong D
5 M. Bakker D
6 O. Kossounou D
20 C. Aránguiz M
8 R. Andrich M
38 K. Bellarabi M
14 P. Schick F
19 M. Diaby M
27 F. Wirtz M
Bench (9)
10 K. Demirbay
33 P. Hincapié
11 N. Amiri
31 A. Adli
40 A. Lunev
7 Paulinho
3 P. Retsos
13 L. Alario
22 D. Sinkgraven

Coach: G. Seoane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,18
U
3,73
B ✓
2,16
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,54
U2,5
2,50
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Cortus · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.