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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Roma

T S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Frosinone

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,56 xG 0,91

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 16. · Frosinone 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	0	1	+16	+10.1	18
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+7	+5.1	18
3	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+10	+10.8	14
4	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.2	14
5	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.1	13
6	Fiorentina	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.0	11
7	Lecce	7	3	2	2	-1	-4.6	11
8	Bologna	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.5	10
9	Frosinone	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.0	9
10	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.2	9
11	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.2	8
12	Torino	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.6	8
13	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	-3.3	7
14	Lazio	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.8	7
15	Monza	6	1	3	2	-3	-0.2	6
16	Roma	6	1	2	3	+2	+4.5	5
17	Udinese	7	0	4	3	-8	-1.9	4
18	Salernitana	7	0	3	4	-10	-7.9	3
19	Empoli	7	1	0	6	-15	-5.6	3
20	Cagliari	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+9	+6.8	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
3	Lecce	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
4	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
5	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
6	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
7	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
8	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+4	+6.6	6
9	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
10	Monza	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.5	5
11	Torino	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
12	Roma	3	1	1	1	+6	+3.0	4
13	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
14	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
15	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+7	+3.3	9
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+1	+0.5	9
3	Napoli	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.2	8
4	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.5	7
6	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.1	6
7	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
8	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
9	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
10	Verona	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
11	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-3	-4.8	3
12	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.0	3
13	Frosinone	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
15	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.1	2
16	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-3	-5.1	1
17	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.4	1
18	Roma	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.6	1
19	Monza	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.7	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.